Luca Bertoldi vs Aram Hakobyan
Main Card · Lightweight · PFL
Luca Bertoldi
“Il Martello”
13-3-0
- Age
- 28
- Height
- 176 cm
- Reach
- 179 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Streak
- 2-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 64%
- Sub rate
- 4%
- Decision rate
- 32%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 6
- Takedown avg
- 0.8
- Takedown defense
- 65%
- Control time
- 2:56 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 87/100
Recent form
Recent fight history
- Wvs Tom Fairweather - Submission (Guillotine)UFC 314 · 2026-01-18
- Wvs Aziz Karimov - DecisionPFL Europe 2 · 2026-12-27
- Wvs Kaito Ishida - TKO (Round 2)Cage Warriors 189 · 2025-11-08
- Lvs Rui Mendes - Submission (RNC)UFC Fight Night · 2025-10-17
Aram Hakobyan
“Stone Hands”
15-5-0
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 174 cm
- Reach
- 177 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 18%
- Sub rate
- 33%
- Decision rate
- 49%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.4
- Takedown avg
- 5.2
- Takedown defense
- 88%
- Control time
- 6:43 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 61/100
Recent form
Recent fight history
- Wvs Ivan Petrov - TKO (Round 2)UFC 314 · 2026-01-22
- Wvs Marcus Bell - Submission (RNC)PFL Europe 2 · 2026-12-03
- Wvs Yuta Nakamura - KO (Round 1)Cage Warriors 189 · 2025-11-12
- Wvs Danny Ochoa - Unanimous DecisionUFC Fight Night · 2025-10-21
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Luca Bertoldi
Confidence
54%
Predicted method
TKO / KO
Predicted round
Round 3
Upset potential
High
Risk level
High
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Luca Bertoldi is the more complete striker here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Aram Hakobyan's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 54%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a finish around round 3.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Luca Bertoldi
-188
- Market implied win %
- 65.3%
- Raina's model win %
- 54%
- Return on 100 staked
- +53
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Aram Hakobyan
+175
- Market implied win %
- 36.4%
- Raina's model win %
- 46%
- Return on 100 staked
- +175
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-11.3 pts
Edge on Luca Bertoldi
- Raina's model
- 54%
- Market implied
- 65.3%
- at -188
- Gap (model − market)
- -11.3 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Luca Bertoldi higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
Rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Bertoldi by KO/TKO+15239.7%
- Bertoldi by decision+16737.5%
- Hakobyan by submission+30524.7%
- Fight goes the distance+7357.8%
Odds source: Consensus snapshot: DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM · updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
Share this pick
PFL · PFL Europe 4
Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 6:00 PM UTC
Luca Bertoldi vs Aram Hakobyan
Main Card · Lightweight
Raina's pick
Luca Bertoldi
54%
Method / round
TKO / KO
Round 3
Line & edge
-188
65.3% implied · -11.3 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.