Callum Byrne vs Piotr Kowalczyk
Co-Main · Welterweight · PFL
Callum Byrne
“The Mancunian”
14-2-0
- Age
- 27
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 186 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Welterweight
- Streak
- 2-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 57%
- Sub rate
- 7%
- Decision rate
- 36%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 5.8
- Takedown avg
- 1
- Takedown defense
- 71%
- Control time
- 3:37 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 65/100
Recent form
Recent fight history
- Wvs Dre Coleman - Unanimous DecisionUFC 314 · 2026-02-17
- Wvs Omar Haddad - KO (Round 1)UFC Fight Night · 2026-03-08
- Lvs Jesse Lindqvist - DecisionCage Warriors 189 · 2025-04-27
- Wvs Nikita Volkov - Submission (Guillotine)ONE Fight Night 28 · 2025-05-18
Piotr Kowalczyk
“The Vice”
16-5-0
- Age
- 31
- Height
- 178 cm
- Reach
- 182 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Welterweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 16%
- Sub rate
- 50%
- Decision rate
- 34%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.3
- Takedown avg
- 4
- Takedown defense
- 66%
- Control time
- 4:34 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 66/100
Recent form
Recent fight history
- Wvs Yuta Nakamura - TKO (Round 2)UFC 314 · 2026-11-16
- Wvs Danny Ochoa - Submission (RNC)PFL Europe 2 · 2026-10-25
- Wvs Ivan Petrov - Submission (Guillotine)ONE Fight Night 28 · 2025-01-26
- Wvs Marcus Bell - DecisionCage Warriors 189 · 2025-12-07
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Piotr Kowalczyk
Confidence
71%
Predicted method
Submission
Predicted round
Round 1
Upset potential
Moderate
Risk level
Medium
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Piotr Kowalczyk is the more complete grappler here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 5 rounds.
Callum Byrne's clearest path is landing early power before the fight settles - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 71%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a finish around round 1.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Callum Byrne
+276
- Market implied win %
- 26.6%
- Raina's model win %
- 29%
- Return on 100 staked
- +276
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Piotr Kowalczyk
-307
- Market implied win %
- 75.4%
- Raina's model win %
- 71%
- Return on 100 staked
- +33
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-4.4 pts
Edge on Piotr Kowalczyk
- Raina's model
- 71%
- Market implied
- 75.4%
- at -307
- Gap (model − market)
- -4.4 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Piotr Kowalczyk higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
Rounds total
Over/Under 2.5 rounds
Over
+110
47.6% implied
Under
-135
57.4% implied
Method & distance markets
- Kowalczyk by KO/TKO+26127.7%
- Kowalczyk by decision+25827.9%
- Byrne by submission+36521.5%
- Fight goes the distance-14759.5%
Odds source: Consensus snapshot: DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM · updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
Share this pick
PFL · PFL Europe 4
Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 6:00 PM UTC
Callum Byrne vs Piotr Kowalczyk
Co-Main · Welterweight
Raina's pick
Piotr Kowalczyk
71%
Method / round
Submission
Round 1
Line & edge
-307
75.4% implied · -4.4 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.