Chloé Ferrand vs Katie Murray
Main Card · Women's Flyweight · PFL
Chloé Ferrand
“La Guillotine”
10-1-0
- Age
- 26
- Height
- 166 cm
- Reach
- 170 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Women's Flyweight
- Streak
- 3-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 12%
- Sub rate
- 44%
- Decision rate
- 44%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 2.4
- Takedown avg
- 2.9
- Takedown defense
- 78%
- Control time
- 1:22 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 68/100
Recent form
Recent fight history
- Wvs Bruno Alcantara - DecisionPFL Europe 2 · 2026-08-15
- Wvs Leon Vasquez - Submission (Guillotine)UFC 314 · 2026-09-06
- Wvs Nikita Volkov - Unanimous DecisionCage Warriors 189 · 2025-06-05
- Wvs Sam Okafor - KO (Round 1)ONE Fight Night 28 · 2025-07-24
Katie Murray
“Glasgow Grit”
11-4-0
- Age
- 29
- Height
- 164 cm
- Reach
- 167 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Women's Flyweight
- Streak
- 4-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 21%
- Sub rate
- 26%
- Decision rate
- 53%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.7
- Takedown avg
- 4.1
- Takedown defense
- 80%
- Control time
- 5:50 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 69/100
Recent form
Recent fight history
- Wvs Bruno Alcantara - Unanimous DecisionUFC Fight Night · 2026-08-07
- Wvs Leon Vasquez - KO (Round 1)Cage Warriors 189 · 2026-09-26
- Wvs Nikita Volkov - Submission (RNC)PFL Europe 2 · 2025-06-25
- Wvs Sam Okafor - TKO (Round 2)UFC 314 · 2025-07-16
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Chloé Ferrand
Confidence
60%
Predicted method
Submission
Predicted round
Round 2
Upset potential
High
Risk level
High
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Chloé Ferrand is the more complete grappler here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Katie Murray's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 60%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a finish around round 2.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Chloé Ferrand
-230
- Market implied win %
- 69.7%
- Raina's model win %
- 60%
- Return on 100 staked
- +43
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Katie Murray
+211
- Market implied win %
- 32.2%
- Raina's model win %
- 40%
- Return on 100 staked
- +211
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-9.7 pts
Edge on Chloé Ferrand
- Raina's model
- 60%
- Market implied
- 69.7%
- at -230
- Gap (model − market)
- -9.7 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Chloé Ferrand higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
Rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Ferrand by KO/TKO+23429.9%
- Ferrand by decision+18834.7%
- Murray by submission+37721%
- Fight goes the distance+3176.3%
Odds source: Consensus snapshot: DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM · updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
Share this pick
PFL · PFL Europe 4
Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 6:00 PM UTC
Chloé Ferrand vs Katie Murray
Main Card · Women's Flyweight
Raina's pick
Chloé Ferrand
60%
Method / round
Submission
Round 2
Line & edge
-230
69.7% implied · -9.7 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.