Mateusz Gamrot vs Jordan Salkilld
Main Event · Lightweight · UFC
Mateusz Gamrot
“Gamer”
24-3-1
- Age
- 34
- Height
- 173 cm
- Reach
- 180 cm
- Stance
- Southpaw
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Streak
- 2-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 21%
- Sub rate
- 33%
- Decision rate
- 46%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.12
- Takedown avg
- 4.34
- Takedown defense
- 72%
- Control time
- 6:41 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 88/100
Recent form
Recent fight history
- Wvs Rafael Fiziev - DecisionUFC Fight Night · 2025-11-08
- Lvs Dan Hooker - DecisionUFC 305 · 2024-08-17
- Wvs Rafael dos Anjos - DecisionUFC 299 · 2024-03-09
- Wvs Jalin Turner - Split DecisionUFC 285 · 2023-03-04
Jordan Salkilld
“The Blueprint”
13-2-0
- Age
- 27
- Height
- 178 cm
- Reach
- 185 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 62%
- Sub rate
- 15%
- Decision rate
- 23%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 5.68
- Takedown avg
- 0.9
- Takedown defense
- 58%
- Control time
- 1:12 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 61/100
Recent form
Recent fight history
- Wvs Cody Haddon - KO (Round 1)UFC Fight Night · 2026-02-14
- Wvs Marc Diakiese - TKO (Round 2)UFC Fight Night · 2025-09-20
- Wvs Nathan Fletcher - DecisionCage Warriors 182 · 2025-04-12
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Mateusz Gamrot
Confidence
68%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (5 rounds)
Upset potential
Moderate
Risk level
Medium
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Gamrot averages 4.34 takedowns per 15 minutes against a 58% takedown defense - the single widest statistical gap in this matchup.
Salkilld's 62% KO rate has been built against opponents averaging a 61 opponent-quality index; Gamrot's index is 88, and he has never been finished by strikes.
Over five rounds, Gamrot's 6:41 of average control time compresses Salkilld's output volume, which is where his finishing power lives.
The path to an upset is early: Salkilld lands 5.68 significant strikes per minute at 52% accuracy, so round one carries genuine knockdown risk.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Mateusz Gamrot
-175
- Market implied win %
- 63.6%
- Raina's model win %
- 68%
- Return on 100 staked
- +57
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Jordan Salkilld
+150
- Market implied win %
- 40%
- Raina's model win %
- 32%
- Return on 100 staked
- +150
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model above market
+4.4 pts
Edge on Mateusz Gamrot
- Raina's model
- 68%
- Market implied
- 63.6%
- at -175
- Gap (model − market)
- +4.4 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Mateusz Gamrot higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
Rounds total
Over/Under 4.5 rounds
Over
-135
57.4% implied
Under
+115
46.5% implied
Method & distance markets
- Gamrot by decision+11047.6%
- Gamrot by submission+45018.2%
- Salkilld by KO/TKO+21032.3%
- Fight goes the distance-12054.5%
Odds source: Consensus snapshot: DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM · updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
Share this pick
UFC · UFC 321: Gamrot vs Salkilld
Saturday, August 22, 2026 · 10:00 PM UTC
Mateusz Gamrot vs Jordan Salkilld
Main Event · Lightweight
Raina's pick
Mateusz Gamrot
68%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (5 rounds)
Line & edge
-175
63.6% implied · +4.4 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.