Dez Holloway vs Giorgi Beridze
Prelims · Lightweight · UFC
Dez Holloway
“Blackout”
11-2-0
- Age
- 26
- Height
- 178 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Streak
- 2-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 50%
- Sub rate
- 9%
- Decision rate
- 41%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 6
- Takedown avg
- 0.5
- Takedown defense
- 76%
- Control time
- 5:58 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 59/100
Recent form
Recent fight history
- Wvs Danny Ochoa - DecisionONE Fight Night 28 · 2026-08-11
- Wvs Yuta Nakamura - Submission (Guillotine)PFL Europe 2 · 2026-09-02
- Lvs Marcus Bell - Unanimous DecisionUFC Fight Night · 2025-06-01
- Wvs Ivan Petrov - KO (Round 1)Cage Warriors 189 · 2025-07-20
Giorgi Beridze
“The Bear”
14-4-0
- Age
- 29
- Height
- 175 cm
- Reach
- 178 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Streak
- 3-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 19%
- Sub rate
- 24%
- Decision rate
- 57%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4
- Takedown avg
- 4.6
- Takedown defense
- 86%
- Control time
- 6:14 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 78/100
Recent form
Recent fight history
- Wvs Omar Haddad - TKO (Round 2)UFC Fight Night · 2026-09-14
- Wvs Dre Coleman - Submission (RNC)UFC 314 · 2026-08-23
- Wvs Nikita Volkov - KO (Round 1)ONE Fight Night 28 · 2025-07-04
- Lvs Jesse Lindqvist - Unanimous DecisionCage Warriors 189 · 2025-06-13
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Dez Holloway
Confidence
60%
Predicted method
TKO / KO
Predicted round
Round 1
Upset potential
High
Risk level
High
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Dez Holloway is the more complete striker here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Giorgi Beridze's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 60%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a finish around round 1.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Dez Holloway
-230
- Market implied win %
- 69.7%
- Raina's model win %
- 60%
- Return on 100 staked
- +43
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Giorgi Beridze
+211
- Market implied win %
- 32.2%
- Raina's model win %
- 40%
- Return on 100 staked
- +211
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-9.7 pts
Edge on Dez Holloway
- Raina's model
- 60%
- Market implied
- 69.7%
- at -230
- Gap (model − market)
- -9.7 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Dez Holloway higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
Rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Holloway by KO/TKO+27127%
- Holloway by decision+18535.1%
- Beridze by submission+48817%
- Fight goes the distance+3275.8%
Odds source: Consensus snapshot: DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM · updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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UFC · UFC 321: Gamrot vs Salkilld
Saturday, August 22, 2026 · 10:00 PM UTC
Dez Holloway vs Giorgi Beridze
Prelims · Lightweight
Raina's pick
Dez Holloway
60%
Method / round
TKO / KO
Round 1
Line & edge
-230
69.7% implied · -9.7 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.