Andrii Koval vs Luana Ferreira
Main Event · Light Heavyweight · PFL
Andrii Koval
“Steel”
19-6-0
- Age
- 33
- Height
- 191 cm
- Reach
- 198 cm
- Stance
- Switch
- Weight class
- Light Heavyweight
- Streak
- 1-fight loss streak
- KO rate
- 58%
- Sub rate
- 11%
- Decision rate
- 31%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.77
- Takedown avg
- 1.42
- Takedown defense
- 76%
- Control time
- 2:18 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 81/100
Recent form
Recent fight history
- Lvs Rob Wilkinson - DecisionPFL Europe · 2026-03-01
- Wvs Josh Silveira - KO (Round 2)PFL 8 · 2025-08-15
Luana Ferreira
“Onça”
16-4-0
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 168 cm
- Reach
- 172 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Flyweight
- Streak
- 3-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 31%
- Sub rate
- 44%
- Decision rate
- 25%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.88
- Takedown avg
- 3.61
- Takedown defense
- 69%
- Control time
- 5:03 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 74/100
Recent form
Recent fight history
- Wvs Ariane Lipski - Submission (RNC)UFC Fight Night · 2026-01-24
- Wvs Karine Silva - DecisionUFC 310 · 2025-06-07
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Andrii Koval
Confidence
61%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (3 rounds)
Upset potential
Moderate
Risk level
Medium
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Koval's 76% takedown defense blunts the grappling entries that produce 44% of his opponent's finishes.
A seven-centimetre reach advantage plus switch stance gives Koval control of range in the opening exchanges.
Momentum leans the other way: Koval is coming off a decision loss and has alternated results across five fights.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Andrii Koval
-145
- Market implied win %
- 59.2%
- Raina's model win %
- 61%
- Return on 100 staked
- +69
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Luana Ferreira
+120
- Market implied win %
- 45.5%
- Raina's model win %
- 39%
- Return on 100 staked
- +120
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
In line with market
+1.8 pts
Edge on Andrii Koval
- Raina's model
- 61%
- Market implied
- 59.2%
- at -145
- Gap (model − market)
- +1.8 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Andrii Koval higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
Rounds total
Over/Under 2.5 rounds
Over
-170
63% implied
Under
+140
41.7% implied
Method & distance markets
- Koval by decision+13043.5%
- Koval by KO/TKO+32023.8%
- Ferreira by submission+38020.8%
- Fight goes the distance-15560.8%
Odds source: Consensus snapshot: DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM · updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
Share this pick
PFL · PFL Europe 4
Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 6:00 PM UTC
Andrii Koval vs Luana Ferreira
Main Event · Light Heavyweight
Raina's pick
Andrii Koval
61%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (3 rounds)
Line & edge
-145
59.2% implied · +1.8 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.