Rhys McCarthy vs Yannick Duval
Main Card · Welterweight · UFC
Rhys McCarthy
“Bad Habit”
18-5-0
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 183 cm
- Reach
- 190 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Welterweight
- Streak
- Rebounding from a loss
- KO rate
- 34%
- Sub rate
- 30%
- Decision rate
- 36%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.5
- Takedown avg
- 1.3
- Takedown defense
- 75%
- Control time
- 7:37 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 71/100
Recent form
Recent fight history
- Wvs Nikita Volkov - Submission (RNC)UFC Fight Night · 2026-02-09
- Wvs Sam Okafor - TKO (Round 2)Cage Warriors 189 · 2026-03-28
- Lvs Bruno Alcantara - Unanimous DecisionONE Fight Night 28 · 2025-04-19
- Wvs Leon Vasquez - KO (Round 1)PFL Europe 2 · 2025-05-10
Yannick Duval
“Le Technicien”
16-4-0
- Age
- 29
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 186 cm
- Stance
- Switch
- Weight class
- Welterweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 15%
- Sub rate
- 42%
- Decision rate
- 43%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 2.6
- Takedown avg
- 4.4
- Takedown defense
- 74%
- Control time
- 1:57 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 81/100
Recent form
Recent fight history
- Wvs Leon Vasquez - DecisionONE Fight Night 28 · 2026-08-11
- Wvs Aziz Karimov - Submission (Guillotine)PFL Europe 2 · 2026-09-02
- Wvs Sam Okafor - Unanimous DecisionUFC Fight Night · 2025-06-01
- Wvs Bruno Alcantara - KO (Round 1)Cage Warriors 189 · 2025-07-20
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Yannick Duval
Confidence
61%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (3 rounds)
Upset potential
High
Risk level
High
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Yannick Duval is the more complete grappler here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Rhys McCarthy's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 61%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Switch) and pace history all point to a fight that reaches the judges.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Rhys McCarthy
+216
- Market implied win %
- 31.6%
- Raina's model win %
- 39%
- Return on 100 staked
- +216
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Yannick Duval
-237
- Market implied win %
- 70.3%
- Raina's model win %
- 61%
- Return on 100 staked
- +42
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-9.3 pts
Edge on Yannick Duval
- Raina's model
- 61%
- Market implied
- 70.3%
- at -237
- Gap (model − market)
- -9.3 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Yannick Duval higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
Rounds total
Over/Under 2.5 rounds
Over
+110
47.6% implied
Under
-135
57.4% implied
Method & distance markets
- Duval by KO/TKO+14341.2%
- Duval by decision+12744.1%
- McCarthy by submission+44718.3%
- Fight goes the distance+12744.1%
Odds source: Consensus snapshot: DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM · updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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Rhys McCarthy vs Yannick Duval
Main Card · Welterweight
Raina's pick
Yannick Duval
61%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (3 rounds)
Line & edge
-237
70.3% implied · -9.3 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.