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PFL Europe 4

Liam McGrath vs Luka Petrović

Prelims · Light Heavyweight · PFL

Red cornerWales

Liam McGrath

Cold Steel

11-3-0

Age
30
Height
190 cm
Reach
195 cm
Stance
Orthodox
Weight class
Light Heavyweight
Streak
3-fight win streak
KO rate
32%
Sub rate
33%
Decision rate
35%
Sig. strikes/min
3.6
Takedown avg
3.7
Takedown defense
74%
Control time
7:27 / fight
Opponent quality
77/100

Recent form

WWWWL

Recent fight history

  • Wvs Yuta Nakamura - DecisionCage Warriors 189 · 2026-06-21
  • Wvs Dre Coleman - Submission (Guillotine)ONE Fight Night 28 · 2026-07-12
  • Wvs Omar Haddad - Submission (RNC)PFL Europe 2 · 2025-08-03
  • Wvs Jesse Lindqvist - TKO (Round 2)UFC 314 · 2025-09-22
Full profile →
Blue cornerCroatia

Luka Petrović

The Hammer

13-5-0

Age
32
Height
192 cm
Reach
196 cm
Stance
Orthodox
Weight class
Light Heavyweight
Streak
5-fight win streak
KO rate
55%
Sub rate
14%
Decision rate
31%
Sig. strikes/min
5.1
Takedown avg
0.3
Takedown defense
72%
Control time
5:23 / fight
Opponent quality
72/100

Recent form

WWWWW

Recent fight history

  • Wvs Marcus Bell - Submission (RNC)PFL Europe 2 · 2026-04-11
  • Wvs Ivan Petrov - TKO (Round 2)UFC 314 · 2026-05-02
  • Wvs Rui Mendes - DecisionCage Warriors 189 · 2025-02-01
  • Wvs Kaito Ishida - Submission (Guillotine)ONE Fight Night 28 · 2025-03-20
Full profile →

Raina's AI Analysis

AI-generated
On record since 2026-08-06

Predicted winner

Liam McGrath

Confidence

66%

Predicted method

Decision

Predicted round

Distance (3 rounds)

Upset potential

Moderate

Risk level

Medium

Advantage model

StrikingLuka Petrović +16
GrapplingLiam McGrath +23
WrestlingLiam McGrath +22
CardioLiam McGrath +23
ExperienceLuka Petrović +13
Fight IQLuka Petrović +17

Why Raina made this pick

Liam McGrath is the more complete wrestler here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.

Luka Petrović's clearest path is landing early power before the fight settles - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 66%.

Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that reaches the judges.

AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.

Lines & market comparison

Informational
Odds source: Consensus snapshot: DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM · last updated

Red corner

Liam McGrath

-272

Market implied win %
73.1%
Raina's model win %
66%
Return on 100 staked
+37

Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

Blue corner

Luka Petrović

+246

Market implied win %
28.9%
Raina's model win %
34%
Return on 100 staked
+246

Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

Model below market

-7.1 pts

Edge on Liam McGrath

0%50%100%
Raina's model
66%
Market implied
73.1%
at -272
Gap (model − market)
-7.1 pts

A positive gap means Raina rates Liam McGrath higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.

Rounds total

Over/Under 1.5 rounds

Over

-125

55.6% implied

Under

+105

48.8% implied

Method & distance markets

  • McGrath by KO/TKO+16737.5%
  • McGrath by decision+14640.7%
  • Petrović by submission+60514.2%
  • Fight goes the distance+3176.3%

Odds source: Consensus snapshot: DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM · updated

Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).

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On record

PFL · PFL Europe 4

Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 6:00 PM UTC

Liam McGrath vs Luka Petrović

Prelims · Light Heavyweight

Raina's pick

Liam McGrath

66%

Method / round

Decision

Distance (3 rounds)

Line & edge

-272

73.1% implied · -7.1 pts

Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.