Xavi Moreno vs Emil Larsen
Prelims · Featherweight · PFL
Xavi Moreno
“El Rayo”
12-2-0
- Age
- 25
- Height
- 172 cm
- Reach
- 176 cm
- Stance
- Switch
- Weight class
- Featherweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 34%
- Sub rate
- 24%
- Decision rate
- 42%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.4
- Takedown avg
- 1.8
- Takedown defense
- 65%
- Control time
- 6:25 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 64/100
Recent form
Recent fight history
- Wvs Dre Coleman - KO (Round 1)PFL Europe 2 · 2026-05-18
- Wvs Yuta Nakamura - Unanimous DecisionONE Fight Night 28 · 2026-04-27
- Wvs Jesse Lindqvist - Submission (Guillotine)UFC Fight Night · 2025-03-08
- Wvs Omar Haddad - DecisionUFC 314 · 2025-02-17
Emil Larsen
“Viking”
14-6-0
- Age
- 31
- Height
- 175 cm
- Reach
- 178 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Featherweight
- Streak
- 4-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 53%
- Sub rate
- 14%
- Decision rate
- 33%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.2
- Takedown avg
- 0.9
- Takedown defense
- 65%
- Control time
- 6:06 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 72/100
Recent form
Recent fight history
- Wvs Marcus Bell - TKO (Round 2)UFC 314 · 2026-05-18
- Wvs Kaito Ishida - Submission (RNC)PFL Europe 2 · 2026-04-27
- Wvs Danny Ochoa - KO (Round 1)Cage Warriors 189 · 2025-03-08
- Wvs Ivan Petrov - Unanimous DecisionUFC Fight Night · 2025-02-17
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Emil Larsen
Confidence
59%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (3 rounds)
Upset potential
High
Risk level
High
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Emil Larsen is the more complete striker here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Xavi Moreno's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 59%.
Reach, stance (Switch vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that reaches the judges.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Xavi Moreno
+205
- Market implied win %
- 32.8%
- Raina's model win %
- 41%
- Return on 100 staked
- +205
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Emil Larsen
-223
- Market implied win %
- 69%
- Raina's model win %
- 59%
- Return on 100 staked
- +45
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-10 pts
Edge on Emil Larsen
- Raina's model
- 59%
- Market implied
- 69%
- at -223
- Gap (model − market)
- -10 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Emil Larsen higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
Rounds total
Over/Under 2.5 rounds
Over
+110
47.6% implied
Under
-135
57.4% implied
Method & distance markets
- Larsen by KO/TKO+31024.4%
- Larsen by decision+27027%
- Moreno by submission+33523%
- Fight goes the distance-3525.9%
Odds source: Consensus snapshot: DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM · updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
Share this pick
PFL · PFL Europe 4
Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 6:00 PM UTC
Xavi Moreno vs Emil Larsen
Prelims · Featherweight
Raina's pick
Emil Larsen
59%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (3 rounds)
Line & edge
-223
69% implied · -10 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.