Valentina Reyes vs Petra Novák
Main Card · Women's Flyweight · UFC
Valentina Reyes
“La Tormenta”
12-2-0
- Age
- 27
- Height
- 165 cm
- Reach
- 170 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Women's Flyweight
- Streak
- 2-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 60%
- Sub rate
- 6%
- Decision rate
- 34%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 5.4
- Takedown avg
- 1.2
- Takedown defense
- 68%
- Control time
- 0:59 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 57/100
Recent form
Recent fight history
- Wvs Ivan Petrov - KO (Round 1)PFL Europe 2 · 2026-03-24
- Wvs Marcus Bell - Unanimous DecisionONE Fight Night 28 · 2026-02-05
- Wvs Kaito Ishida - TKO (Round 2)Cage Warriors 189 · 2025-05-06
- Lvs Rui Mendes - Submission (RNC)UFC Fight Night · 2025-04-15
Petra Novák
“Iron Rose”
11-3-0
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 168 cm
- Reach
- 173 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Women's Flyweight
- Streak
- Rebounding from a loss
- KO rate
- 22%
- Sub rate
- 25%
- Decision rate
- 53%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.1
- Takedown avg
- 3.2
- Takedown defense
- 72%
- Control time
- 0:14 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 69/100
Recent form
Recent fight history
- Wvs Sam Okafor - TKO (Round 2)UFC Fight Night · 2026-07-08
- Lvs Nikita Volkov - Submission (RNC)UFC 314 · 2026-06-17
- Wvs Jesse Lindqvist - Submission (Guillotine)PFL Europe 2 · 2025-09-18
- Lvs Omar Haddad - DecisionONE Fight Night 28 · 2025-08-27
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Petra Novák
Confidence
79%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (3 rounds)
Upset potential
Low
Risk level
Low
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Petra Novák is the more complete wrestler here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Valentina Reyes's clearest path is landing early power before the fight settles - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 79%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that reaches the judges.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Valentina Reyes
+324
- Market implied win %
- 23.6%
- Raina's model win %
- 21%
- Return on 100 staked
- +324
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Petra Novák
-363
- Market implied win %
- 78.4%
- Raina's model win %
- 79%
- Return on 100 staked
- +28
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
In line with market
+0.6 pts
Edge on Petra Novák
- Raina's model
- 79%
- Market implied
- 78.4%
- at -363
- Gap (model − market)
- +0.6 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Petra Novák higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
Rounds total
Over/Under 2.5 rounds
Over
+110
47.6% implied
Under
-135
57.4% implied
Method & distance markets
- Novák by KO/TKO+23330%
- Novák by decision+14041.7%
- Reyes by submission+24728.8%
- Fight goes the distance+13442.7%
Odds source: Consensus snapshot: DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM · updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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Valentina Reyes vs Petra Novák
Main Card · Women's Flyweight
Raina's pick
Petra Novák
79%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (3 rounds)
Line & edge
-363
78.4% implied · +0.6 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.