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ONE 182: Tanaka vs Mendes

Ploy Sae-Lim vs Miu Takahashi

Main Card · Women's Atomweight · ONE Championship

Red cornerThailand

Ploy Sae-Lim

Little Knife

13-3-0

Age
26
Height
158 cm
Reach
161 cm
Stance
Orthodox
Weight class
Women's Atomweight
Streak
5-fight win streak
KO rate
64%
Sub rate
6%
Decision rate
30%
Sig. strikes/min
6
Takedown avg
0.6
Takedown defense
71%
Control time
3:16 / fight
Opponent quality
87/100

Recent form

WWWWW

Recent fight history

  • Wvs Marcus Bell - DecisionCage Warriors 189 · 2026-10-25
  • Wvs Ivan Petrov - Submission (Guillotine)ONE Fight Night 28 · 2026-11-16
  • Wvs Danny Ochoa - Submission (RNC)PFL Europe 2 · 2025-12-07
  • Wvs Yuta Nakamura - TKO (Round 2)UFC 314 · 2025-01-26
Full profile →
Blue cornerJapan

Miu Takahashi

Quiet Rain

11-2-0

Age
25
Height
160 cm
Reach
162 cm
Stance
Southpaw
Weight class
Women's Atomweight
Streak
Rebounding from a loss
KO rate
14%
Sub rate
46%
Decision rate
40%
Sig. strikes/min
2.8
Takedown avg
3.8
Takedown defense
78%
Control time
7:47 / fight
Opponent quality
79/100

Recent form

WWLWL

Recent fight history

  • Wvs Dre Coleman - Unanimous DecisionCage Warriors 189 · 2026-10-01
  • Wvs Omar Haddad - KO (Round 1)ONE Fight Night 28 · 2026-11-20
  • Lvs Jesse Lindqvist - DecisionPFL Europe 2 · 2025-12-11
  • Wvs Nikita Volkov - Submission (Guillotine)UFC 314 · 2025-01-02
Full profile →

Raina's AI Analysis

AI-generated
On record since 2026-08-06

Predicted winner

Miu Takahashi

Confidence

75%

Predicted method

Submission

Predicted round

Round 2

Upset potential

Low

Risk level

Low

Advantage model

StrikingPloy Sae-Lim +35
GrapplingMiu Takahashi +40
WrestlingPloy Sae-Lim +11
CardioPloy Sae-Lim +16
ExperiencePloy Sae-Lim +20
Fight IQPloy Sae-Lim +10

Why Raina made this pick

Miu Takahashi is the more complete grappler here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.

Ploy Sae-Lim's clearest path is landing early power before the fight settles - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 75%.

Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Southpaw) and pace history all point to a finish around round 2.

AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.

Lines & market comparison

Informational
Odds source: Consensus snapshot: DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM · last updated

Red corner

Ploy Sae-Lim

+300

Market implied win %
25%
Raina's model win %
25%
Return on 100 staked
+300

Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

Blue corner

Miu Takahashi

-335

Market implied win %
77%
Raina's model win %
75%
Return on 100 staked
+30

Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

In line with market

-2 pts

Edge on Miu Takahashi

0%50%100%
Raina's model
75%
Market implied
77%
at -335
Gap (model − market)
-2 pts

A positive gap means Raina rates Miu Takahashi higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.

Rounds total

Over/Under 2.5 rounds

Over

+110

47.6% implied

Under

-135

57.4% implied

Method & distance markets

  • Takahashi by KO/TKO+22730.6%
  • Takahashi by decision+20432.9%
  • Sae-Lim by submission+35322.1%
  • Fight goes the distance+2083.3%

Odds source: Consensus snapshot: DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM · updated

Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).

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On record

ONE Championship · ONE 182: Tanaka vs Mendes

Saturday, August 29, 2026 · 11:30 AM UTC

Ploy Sae-Lim vs Miu Takahashi

Main Card · Women's Atomweight

Raina's pick

Miu Takahashi

75%

Method / round

Submission

Round 2

Line & edge

-335

77% implied · -2 pts

Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.