Rodrigo Silva vs Denis Orlov
Prelims · Featherweight · ONE Championship
Rodrigo Silva
“Cobrinha”
17-4-0
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 173 cm
- Reach
- 178 cm
- Stance
- Southpaw
- Weight class
- Featherweight
- Streak
- Rebounding from a loss
- KO rate
- 17%
- Sub rate
- 55%
- Decision rate
- 28%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 2.4
- Takedown avg
- 4.4
- Takedown defense
- 79%
- Control time
- 1:13 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 67/100
Recent form
Recent fight history
- Wvs Omar Haddad - Unanimous DecisionUFC Fight Night · 2026-08-11
- Wvs Jesse Lindqvist - KO (Round 1)Cage Warriors 189 · 2026-09-02
- Lvs Yuta Nakamura - Submission (RNC)PFL Europe 2 · 2025-06-01
- Wvs Dre Coleman - TKO (Round 2)UFC 314 · 2025-07-20
Denis Orlov
“The Machine”
18-6-0
- Age
- 32
- Height
- 174 cm
- Reach
- 176 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Featherweight
- Streak
- Rebounding from a loss
- KO rate
- 62%
- Sub rate
- 8%
- Decision rate
- 30%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 5.5
- Takedown avg
- 0.5
- Takedown defense
- 77%
- Control time
- 1:58 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 59/100
Recent form
Recent fight history
- Wvs Sam Okafor - DecisionUFC 314 · 2026-08-15
- Wvs Bruno Alcantara - Submission (Guillotine)UFC Fight Night · 2026-09-06
- Lvs Jesse Lindqvist - Unanimous DecisionONE Fight Night 28 · 2025-06-05
- Wvs Nikita Volkov - KO (Round 1)PFL Europe 2 · 2025-07-24
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Denis Orlov
Confidence
67%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (3 rounds)
Upset potential
Moderate
Risk level
Medium
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Denis Orlov is the more complete striker here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Rodrigo Silva's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 67%.
Reach, stance (Southpaw vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that reaches the judges.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Rodrigo Silva
+252
- Market implied win %
- 28.4%
- Raina's model win %
- 33%
- Return on 100 staked
- +252
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Denis Orlov
-279
- Market implied win %
- 73.6%
- Raina's model win %
- 67%
- Return on 100 staked
- +36
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-6.6 pts
Edge on Denis Orlov
- Raina's model
- 67%
- Market implied
- 73.6%
- at -279
- Gap (model − market)
- -6.6 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Denis Orlov higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
Rounds total
Over/Under 2.5 rounds
Over
+110
47.6% implied
Under
-135
57.4% implied
Method & distance markets
- Orlov by KO/TKO+27726.5%
- Orlov by decision+26727.2%
- Silva by submission+34722.4%
- Fight goes the distance+21032.3%
Odds source: Consensus snapshot: DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM · updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
Share this pick
ONE Championship · ONE 182: Tanaka vs Mendes
Saturday, August 29, 2026 · 11:30 AM UTC
Rodrigo Silva vs Denis Orlov
Prelims · Featherweight
Raina's pick
Denis Orlov
67%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (3 rounds)
Line & edge
-279
73.6% implied · -6.6 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.