Kenji Tanaka vs Caio Mendes
Main Event · Featherweight · World Title · ONE Championship
Kenji Tanaka
“Shogun”
21-5-1
- Age
- 29
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Featherweight
- Streak
- 4-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 43%
- Sub rate
- 29%
- Decision rate
- 28%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 5.12
- Takedown avg
- 2.35
- Takedown defense
- 81%
- Control time
- 3:44 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 79/100
Recent form
Recent fight history
- Wvs Tang Kai - TKO (Round 3)ONE 178 · 2026-02-28
- Wvs Garry Tonon - DecisionONE 171 · 2025-10-11
Caio Mendes
“Furacão”
17-3-0
- Age
- 26
- Height
- 177 cm
- Reach
- 179 cm
- Stance
- Southpaw
- Weight class
- Featherweight
- Streak
- 6-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 35%
- Sub rate
- 47%
- Decision rate
- 18%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.94
- Takedown avg
- 4.02
- Takedown defense
- 64%
- Control time
- 7:22 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 66/100
Recent form
Recent fight history
- Wvs Shamil Gasanov - Submission (Armbar)ONE 176 · 2026-01-17
- Wvs Akbar Abdullaev - DecisionONE 169 · 2025-07-05
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Kenji Tanaka
Confidence
57%
Predicted method
TKO / KO
Predicted round
Round 3
Upset potential
High
Risk level
High
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Tanaka's 81% takedown defense is the gate on this fight: Mendes needs 4.02 takedowns per fight to reach his 47% submission rate.
Mendes is riding a six-fight streak, but his opponent-quality index (66) sits 13 points below Tanaka's.
Tanaka strikes at 51% accuracy with a three-centimetre reach edge and better mid-fight adjustment history.
Confidence stays under 60% because a single successful entry from Mendes changes the fight's geometry entirely.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Kenji Tanaka
-125
- Market implied win %
- 55.6%
- Raina's model win %
- 57%
- Return on 100 staked
- +80
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Caio Mendes
+105
- Market implied win %
- 48.8%
- Raina's model win %
- 43%
- Return on 100 staked
- +105
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
In line with market
+1.4 pts
Edge on Kenji Tanaka
- Raina's model
- 57%
- Market implied
- 55.6%
- at -125
- Gap (model − market)
- +1.4 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Kenji Tanaka higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
Rounds total
Over/Under 3.5 rounds
Over
+105
48.8% implied
Under
-125
55.6% implied
Method & distance markets
- Tanaka by KO/TKO+17536.4%
- Tanaka by decision+32023.8%
- Mendes by submission+26027.8%
- Fight goes the distance+19034.5%
Odds source: Consensus snapshot: DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM · updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
Share this pick
ONE Championship · ONE 182: Tanaka vs Mendes
Saturday, August 29, 2026 · 11:30 AM UTC
Kenji Tanaka vs Caio Mendes
Main Event · Featherweight
Raina's pick
Kenji Tanaka
57%
Method / round
TKO / KO
Round 3
Line & edge
-125
55.6% implied · +1.4 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.