Marc Thibault vs Sho Kudo
Main Card · Middleweight · UFC
Marc Thibault
“Hammer”
14-6-0
- Age
- 33
- Height
- 188 cm
- Reach
- 193 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Middleweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 52%
- Sub rate
- 10%
- Decision rate
- 38%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 6.1
- Takedown avg
- 0.6
- Takedown defense
- 67%
- Control time
- 4:26 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 73/100
Recent form
Recent fight history
- Wvs Sam Okafor - TKO (Round 2)UFC 314 · 2026-03-16
- Wvs Nikita Volkov - Submission (RNC)PFL Europe 2 · 2026-02-25
- Wvs Jesse Lindqvist - Submission (Guillotine)ONE Fight Night 28 · 2025-05-26
- Wvs Omar Haddad - DecisionCage Warriors 189 · 2025-04-07
Sho Kudo
“Silent Storm”
15-5-1
- Age
- 31
- Height
- 185 cm
- Reach
- 188 cm
- Stance
- Southpaw
- Weight class
- Middleweight
- Streak
- 2-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 18%
- Sub rate
- 51%
- Decision rate
- 31%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.4
- Takedown avg
- 3.7
- Takedown defense
- 69%
- Control time
- 0:41 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 77/100
Recent form
Recent fight history
- Wvs Tom Fairweather - KO (Round 1)Cage Warriors 189 · 2026-03-04
- Wvs Aziz Karimov - Unanimous DecisionUFC Fight Night · 2026-02-13
- Wvs Leon Vasquez - TKO (Round 2)UFC 314 · 2025-05-14
- Lvs Bruno Alcantara - Submission (RNC)PFL Europe 2 · 2025-04-23
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Marc Thibault
Confidence
62%
Predicted method
TKO / KO
Predicted round
Round 2
Upset potential
Moderate
Risk level
Medium
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Marc Thibault is the more complete striker here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Sho Kudo's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 62%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Southpaw) and pace history all point to a finish around round 2.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Marc Thibault
-244
- Market implied win %
- 70.9%
- Raina's model win %
- 62%
- Return on 100 staked
- +41
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Sho Kudo
+222
- Market implied win %
- 31.1%
- Raina's model win %
- 38%
- Return on 100 staked
- +222
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-8.9 pts
Edge on Marc Thibault
- Raina's model
- 62%
- Market implied
- 70.9%
- at -244
- Gap (model − market)
- -8.9 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Marc Thibault higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
Rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Thibault by KO/TKO+29925.1%
- Thibault by decision+27526.7%
- Kudo by submission+33523%
- Fight goes the distance-15160.2%
Odds source: Consensus snapshot: DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM · updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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UFC · UFC 321: Gamrot vs Salkilld
Saturday, August 22, 2026 · 10:00 PM UTC
Marc Thibault vs Sho Kudo
Main Card · Middleweight
Raina's pick
Marc Thibault
62%
Method / round
TKO / KO
Round 2
Line & edge
-244
70.9% implied · -8.9 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.