Riku Yamada vs Paolo Dela Cruz
Prelims · Strawweight · ONE Championship
Riku Yamada
“Blade”
14-3-0
- Age
- 26
- Height
- 160 cm
- Reach
- 164 cm
- Stance
- Southpaw
- Weight class
- Strawweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 29%
- Sub rate
- 21%
- Decision rate
- 50%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.8
- Takedown avg
- 2.4
- Takedown defense
- 70%
- Control time
- 2:24 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 57/100
Recent form
Recent fight history
- Wvs Tom Fairweather - TKO (Round 2)UFC 314 · 2026-09-18
- Wvs Aziz Karimov - Submission (RNC)PFL Europe 2 · 2026-08-27
- Wvs Kaito Ishida - KO (Round 1)Cage Warriors 189 · 2025-07-08
- Wvs Rui Mendes - Unanimous DecisionUFC Fight Night · 2025-06-17
Paolo Dela Cruz
“Manila Ice”
12-4-0
- Age
- 29
- Height
- 162 cm
- Reach
- 165 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Strawweight
- Streak
- 4-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 15%
- Sub rate
- 47%
- Decision rate
- 38%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.5
- Takedown avg
- 2.5
- Takedown defense
- 67%
- Control time
- 3:07 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 60/100
Recent form
Recent fight history
- Wvs Sam Okafor - Submission (RNC)ONE Fight Night 28 · 2026-02-09
- Wvs Bruno Alcantara - TKO (Round 2)PFL Europe 2 · 2026-03-28
- Wvs Leon Vasquez - Unanimous DecisionUFC 314 · 2025-04-19
- Wvs Aziz Karimov - KO (Round 1)UFC Fight Night · 2025-05-10
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Paolo Dela Cruz
Confidence
61%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (3 rounds)
Upset potential
High
Risk level
High
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Paolo Dela Cruz is the more complete grappler here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Riku Yamada's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 61%.
Reach, stance (Southpaw vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that reaches the judges.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Riku Yamada
+216
- Market implied win %
- 31.6%
- Raina's model win %
- 39%
- Return on 100 staked
- +216
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Paolo Dela Cruz
-237
- Market implied win %
- 70.3%
- Raina's model win %
- 61%
- Return on 100 staked
- +42
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-9.3 pts
Edge on Paolo Dela Cruz
- Raina's model
- 61%
- Market implied
- 70.3%
- at -237
- Gap (model − market)
- -9.3 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Paolo Dela Cruz higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
Rounds total
Over/Under 2.5 rounds
Over
+110
47.6% implied
Under
-135
57.4% implied
Method & distance markets
- Cruz by KO/TKO+14241.3%
- Cruz by decision+11247.2%
- Yamada by submission+24329.2%
- Fight goes the distance-11052.4%
Odds source: Consensus snapshot: DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM · updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
Share this pick
ONE Championship · ONE 182: Tanaka vs Mendes
Saturday, August 29, 2026 · 11:30 AM UTC
Riku Yamada vs Paolo Dela Cruz
Prelims · Strawweight
Raina's pick
Paolo Dela Cruz
61%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (3 rounds)
Line & edge
-237
70.3% implied · -9.3 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.