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ONE 182: Tanaka vs Mendes

Rasul Zaydulaev vs Bagas Prasetyo

Main Card · Lightweight · ONE Championship

Red cornerDagestan

Rasul Zaydulaev

Highlander

16-1-0

Age
27
Height
175 cm
Reach
180 cm
Stance
Orthodox
Weight class
Lightweight
Streak
Rebounding from a loss
KO rate
22%
Sub rate
33%
Decision rate
45%
Sig. strikes/min
3.5
Takedown avg
4
Takedown defense
83%
Control time
5:20 / fight
Opponent quality
55/100

Recent form

WWLWL

Recent fight history

  • Wvs Tom Fairweather - Unanimous DecisionPFL Europe 2 · 2026-04-27
  • Wvs Rui Mendes - KO (Round 1)UFC 314 · 2026-05-18
  • Lvs Leon Vasquez - Submission (RNC)Cage Warriors 189 · 2025-02-17
  • Wvs Aziz Karimov - TKO (Round 2)ONE Fight Night 28 · 2025-03-08
Full profile →
Blue cornerIndonesia

Bagas Prasetyo

Garuda

14-4-0

Age
28
Height
176 cm
Reach
181 cm
Stance
Orthodox
Weight class
Lightweight
Streak
Rebounding from a loss
KO rate
17%
Sub rate
50%
Decision rate
33%
Sig. strikes/min
2.4
Takedown avg
2.6
Takedown defense
66%
Control time
6:49 / fight
Opponent quality
83/100

Recent form

WLWLW

Recent fight history

  • Wvs Bruno Alcantara - TKO (Round 2)UFC Fight Night · 2026-05-10
  • Lvs Sam Okafor - Submission (RNC)UFC 314 · 2026-04-19
  • Wvs Aziz Karimov - KO (Round 1)ONE Fight Night 28 · 2025-03-28
  • Lvs Leon Vasquez - Unanimous DecisionCage Warriors 189 · 2025-02-09
Full profile →

Raina's AI Analysis

AI-generated
On record since 2026-08-06

Predicted winner

Rasul Zaydulaev

Confidence

56%

Predicted method

Decision

Predicted round

Distance (3 rounds)

Upset potential

High

Risk level

High

Advantage model

StrikingRasul Zaydulaev +18
GrapplingRasul Zaydulaev +5
WrestlingRasul Zaydulaev +14
CardioRasul Zaydulaev +7
ExperienceBagas Prasetyo +15
Fight IQRasul Zaydulaev +15

Why Raina made this pick

Rasul Zaydulaev is the more complete wrestler here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.

Bagas Prasetyo's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 56%.

Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that reaches the judges.

AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.

Lines & market comparison

Informational
Odds source: Consensus snapshot: DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM · last updated

Red corner

Rasul Zaydulaev

-202

Market implied win %
66.9%
Raina's model win %
56%
Return on 100 staked
+50

Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

Blue corner

Bagas Prasetyo

+187

Market implied win %
34.8%
Raina's model win %
44%
Return on 100 staked
+187

Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

Model below market

-10.9 pts

Edge on Rasul Zaydulaev

0%50%100%
Raina's model
56%
Market implied
66.9%
at -202
Gap (model − market)
-10.9 pts

A positive gap means Raina rates Rasul Zaydulaev higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.

Rounds total

Over/Under 1.5 rounds

Over

-125

55.6% implied

Under

+105

48.8% implied

Method & distance markets

  • Zaydulaev by KO/TKO+13043.5%
  • Zaydulaev by decision+14341.2%
  • Prasetyo by submission+43118.8%
  • Fight goes the distance-6238.3%

Odds source: Consensus snapshot: DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM · updated

Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).

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On record

ONE Championship · ONE 182: Tanaka vs Mendes

Saturday, August 29, 2026 · 11:30 AM UTC

Rasul Zaydulaev vs Bagas Prasetyo

Main Card · Lightweight

Raina's pick

Rasul Zaydulaev

56%

Method / round

Decision

Distance (3 rounds)

Line & edge

-202

66.9% implied · -10.9 pts

Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.