Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Dustin Stoltzfus
Main Card · Middleweight · UFC
Mansur Abdul-Malik
9-1-1
- Age
- 27
- Height
- 188 cm
- Reach
- 193 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Middleweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 66%
- Sub rate
- 5%
- Decision rate
- 29%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 5.6
- Takedown avg
- 0.6
- Takedown defense
- 58%
- Control time
- 4:42 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 63/100
Recent form
Dustin Stoltzfus
“The Waterboy”
16-8-0
- Age
- 34
- Height
- 185 cm
- Reach
- 188 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Middleweight
- Streak
- Rebounding from a loss
- KO rate
- 19%
- Sub rate
- 56%
- Decision rate
- 25%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3
- Takedown avg
- 2.9
- Takedown defense
- 70%
- Control time
- 3:25 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 54/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Mansur Abdul-Malik
Confidence
62%
Predicted method
TKO / KO
Predicted round
Round 3
Upset potential
Moderate
Risk level
Medium
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Mansur Abdul-Malik is the more complete striker here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Dustin Stoltzfus's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 62%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a finish around round 3.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Mansur Abdul-Malik
-244
- Market implied win %
- 70.9%
- Raina's model win %
- 62%
- Return on 100 staked
- +41
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Dustin Stoltzfus
+222
- Market implied win %
- 31.1%
- Raina's model win %
- 38%
- Return on 100 staked
- +222
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-8.9 pts
Edge on Mansur Abdul-Malik
- Raina's model
- 62%
- Market implied
- 70.9%
- at -244
- Gap (model − market)
- -8.9 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Mansur Abdul-Malik higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
Rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Abdul-Malik by KO/TKO+28925.7%
- Abdul-Malik by decision+27226.9%
- Stoltzfus by submission+37421.1%
- Fight goes the distance-11854.1%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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UFC · UFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry
Sunday, August 16, 2026 · 1:00 AM UTC
Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Dustin Stoltzfus
Main Card · Middleweight
Raina's pick
Mansur Abdul-Malik
62%
Method / round
TKO / KO
Round 3
Line & edge
-244
70.9% implied · -8.9 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Matchups and records checked by the desk against the promotion's official card.