Kai Asakura vs Aori Qileng
Co-Main · Bantamweight · UFC
Kai Asakura
22-6-0
- Age
- 32
- Height
- 170 cm
- Reach
- 173 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Bantamweight
- Streak
- 4-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 64%
- Sub rate
- 5%
- Decision rate
- 31%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.6
- Strike accuracy
- 53%
- Takedown avg
- 0.8
- Takedown defense
- 62%
- Control time
- 5:56 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 63/100
Recent form
Aori Qileng
“Mongolian Murderer”
26-13-0
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 168 cm
- Reach
- 170 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Bantamweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 37%
- Sub rate
- 22%
- Decision rate
- 41%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.4
- Strike accuracy
- 44%
- Takedown avg
- 2.1
- Takedown defense
- 65%
- Control time
- 4:13 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 75/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Aori Qileng
Confidence
63%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (5 rounds)
Upset potential
Moderate
Risk level
Medium
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Aori Qileng is the more complete all-rounder here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 5 rounds.
Kai Asakura's clearest path is landing early power before the fight settles - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 63%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Kai Asakura
+228
- Market implied win %
- 30.5%
- Raina's model win %
- 37%
- Return on 100 staked
- +228
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Aori Qileng
-251
- Market implied win %
- 71.5%
- Raina's model win %
- 63%
- Return on 100 staked
- +40
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-8.5 pts
Edge on Aori Qileng
- Raina's model
- 63%
- Market implied
- 71.5%
- at -251
- Gap (model − market)
- -8.5 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Aori Qileng higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 2.5 rounds
Over
+110
47.6% implied
Under
-135
57.4% implied
Method & distance markets
- Qileng by KO/TKO+14740.5%
- Qileng by decision+12045.5%
- Asakura by submission+34122.7%
- Fight goes the distance+16637.6%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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UFC · UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs Song
Saturday, August 29, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC
Kai Asakura vs Aori Qileng
Co-Main · Bantamweight
Raina's pick
Aori Qileng
63%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (5 rounds)
Line & edge
-251
71.5% implied · -8.5 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Matchups and records checked by the desk against the promotion's official card.