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← BKFC 91 Naples: Hunt vs. Pugliesi

Dan Chapman vs Marco Giustarini

Main Card · Featherweight · BKFC

Official result

Dan Chapman def. Marco Giustarini

KO · Round 2 · imported automatically after the event

Red cornerUnlisted

Dan Chapman

Record unlisted

Age
30
Height
180 cm
Reach
183 cm
Stance
Orthodox
Weight class
Featherweight
Streak
5-fight win streak
KO rate
61%
Decision rate
32%
Sig. strikes/min
5
Strike accuracy
47%
Opponent quality
62/100

Recent form

WWWWW

Recent fight history

    Full profile →
    Blue cornerUnlisted

    Marco Giustarini

    Record unlisted

    Age
    30
    Height
    180 cm
    Reach
    183 cm
    Stance
    Orthodox
    Weight class
    Featherweight
    Streak
    5-fight win streak
    KO rate
    62%
    Decision rate
    34%
    Sig. strikes/min
    4.8
    Strike accuracy
    55%
    Opponent quality
    56/100

    Recent form

    WWWWW

    Recent fight history

      Full profile →

      Raina's AI Analysis

      AI-generated
      On record since 2026-08-06

      Predicted winner

      Dan Chapman

      Confidence

      78%

      Predicted method

      TKO / KO

      Predicted round

      Round 3

      Upset potential

      Low

      Risk level

      Low

      Advantage model

      StrikingMarco Giustarini +10
      Inside workMarco Giustarini +17
      Ring generalshipDan Chapman +16
      CardioMarco Giustarini +17
      ExperienceMarco Giustarini +19
      Fight IQMarco Giustarini +23

      Why Raina made this pick

      Dan Chapman is the more complete striker here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 10 rounds.

      Marco Giustarini's clearest path is landing early power before the fight settles - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 78%.

      Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a finish around round 3.

      AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.

      Lines & market comparison

      Informational
      Odds updated Last updated

      Red corner

      Dan Chapman

      -356

      Market implied win %
      78.1%
      Raina's model win %
      78%
      Return on 100 staked
      +28

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      Blue corner

      Marco Giustarini

      +318

      Market implied win %
      23.9%
      Raina's model win %
      22%
      Return on 100 staked
      +318

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      In line with market

      -0.1 pts

      Edge on Dan Chapman

      0%50%100%
      Raina's model
      78%
      Market implied
      78.1%
      at -356
      Gap (model − market)
      -0.1 pts

      A positive gap means Raina rates Dan Chapman higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.

      rounds total

      Over/Under 1.5 rounds

      Over

      -125

      55.6% implied

      Under

      +105

      48.8% implied

      Method & distance markets

      • Chapman by KO/TKO+19234.2%
      • Chapman on points+25628.1%
      • Giustarini by KO/TKO+55315.3%
      • Fight goes the distance+2381.3%

      Odds updated Updated

      Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).

      Share this pick

      On record

      BKFC · BKFC 91 Naples: Hunt vs. Pugliesi

      Saturday, July 18, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC

      Dan Chapman vs Marco Giustarini

      Main Card · Featherweight

      Raina's pick

      Dan Chapman

      78%

      Method / round

      TKO / KO

      Round 3

      Line & edge

      -356

      78.1% implied · -0.1 pts

      Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.

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