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← BKFC 92 Boston: Stewart vs. Gigliotti

David Burke vs David Simpson

Main Card · Light Heavyweight · BKFC

Red cornerUnlisted

David Burke

Record unlisted

Age
30
Height
180 cm
Reach
183 cm
Stance
Orthodox
Weight class
Light Heavyweight
Streak
4-fight win streak
KO rate
56%
Decision rate
34%
Sig. strikes/min
5.8
Strike accuracy
50%
Opponent quality
71/100

Recent form

WWWWL

Recent fight history

    Full profile →
    Blue cornerUnlisted

    David Simpson

    Record unlisted

    Age
    30
    Height
    180 cm
    Reach
    183 cm
    Stance
    Orthodox
    Weight class
    Light Heavyweight
    Streak
    2-fight win streak
    KO rate
    65%
    Decision rate
    29%
    Sig. strikes/min
    4.9
    Strike accuracy
    46%
    Opponent quality
    75/100

    Recent form

    WWLWL

    Recent fight history

      Full profile →

      Raina's AI Analysis

      AI-generated
      On record since 2026-08-06

      Predicted winner

      David Burke

      Confidence

      56%

      Predicted method

      TKO / KO

      Predicted round

      Round 2

      Upset potential

      High

      Risk level

      High

      Advantage model

      StrikingDavid Simpson +22
      Inside workDavid Burke +15
      Ring generalshipDavid Simpson +16
      CardioDavid Simpson +17
      ExperienceDavid Simpson +11
      Fight IQDavid Burke +11

      Why Raina made this pick

      David Burke is the more complete striker here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 10 rounds.

      David Simpson's clearest path is landing early power before the fight settles - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 56%.

      Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a finish around round 2.

      AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.

      Lines & market comparison

      Informational
      Odds updated Last updated

      Red corner

      David Burke

      -202

      Market implied win %
      66.9%
      Raina's model win %
      56%
      Return on 100 staked
      +50

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      Blue corner

      David Simpson

      +187

      Market implied win %
      34.8%
      Raina's model win %
      44%
      Return on 100 staked
      +187

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      Model below market

      -10.9 pts

      Edge on David Burke

      0%50%100%
      Raina's model
      56%
      Market implied
      66.9%
      at -202
      Gap (model − market)
      -10.9 pts

      A positive gap means Raina rates David Burke higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.

      rounds total

      Over/Under 1.5 rounds

      Over

      -125

      55.6% implied

      Under

      +105

      48.8% implied

      Method & distance markets

      • Burke by KO/TKO+17236.8%
      • Burke on points+14041.7%
      • Simpson by KO/TKO+59914.3%
      • Fight goes the distance+15139.8%

      Odds updated Updated

      Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).

      Share this pick

      On record

      BKFC · BKFC 92 Boston: Stewart vs. Gigliotti

      Saturday, August 29, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC

      David Burke vs David Simpson

      Main Card · Light Heavyweight

      Raina's pick

      David Burke

      56%

      Method / round

      TKO / KO

      Round 2

      Line & edge

      -202

      66.9% implied · -10.9 pts

      Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.

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