Esteban Rodriguez vs Stephen Townsel
Main Card · Ironweight · BKFC
Esteban Rodriguez
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Ironweight
- Streak
- 2-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 49%
- Decision rate
- 39%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 5.2
- Strike accuracy
- 49%
- Opponent quality
- 62/100
Recent form
Stephen Townsel
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Ironweight
- Streak
- 4-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 55%
- Decision rate
- 33%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 5
- Strike accuracy
- 52%
- Opponent quality
- 74/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Esteban Rodriguez
Confidence
56%
Predicted method
TKO / KO
Predicted round
Round 2
Upset potential
High
Risk level
High
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Esteban Rodriguez is the more complete striker here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 10 rounds.
Stephen Townsel's clearest path is landing early power before the fight settles - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 56%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a finish around round 2.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Esteban Rodriguez
-202
- Market implied win %
- 66.9%
- Raina's model win %
- 56%
- Return on 100 staked
- +50
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Stephen Townsel
+187
- Market implied win %
- 34.8%
- Raina's model win %
- 44%
- Return on 100 staked
- +187
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-10.9 pts
Edge on Esteban Rodriguez
- Raina's model
- 56%
- Market implied
- 66.9%
- at -202
- Gap (model − market)
- -10.9 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Esteban Rodriguez higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Rodriguez by KO/TKO+25827.9%
- Rodriguez on points+26227.6%
- Townsel by KO/TKO+32223.7%
- Fight goes the distance+1984%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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Esteban Rodriguez vs Stephen Townsel
Main Card · Ironweight
Raina's pick
Esteban Rodriguez
56%
Method / round
TKO / KO
Round 2
Line & edge
-202
66.9% implied · -10.9 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.