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← BKFC 95 Newark: Herring vs. Dodson

Mike Medrano vs Rob Emerson

Main Card · Welterweight · BKFC

Official result

Mike Medrano def. Rob Emerson

Decision (split) (30-27, 27-30, 29-28) · Round 3 · imported automatically after the event

Red cornerUnlisted

Mike Medrano

Record unlisted

Age
30
Height
180 cm
Reach
183 cm
Stance
Orthodox
Weight class
Welterweight
Streak
Rebounding from a loss
KO rate
64%
Decision rate
22%
Sig. strikes/min
4.6
Strike accuracy
47%
Opponent quality
71/100

Recent form

WLWLW

Recent fight history

    Full profile →
    Blue cornerU.S.

    Rob Emerson

    “The Saint”

    Record unlisted

    Age
    45
    Height
    173 cm
    Reach
    183 cm
    Stance
    Orthodox
    Weight class
    Welterweight
    Streak
    3-fight win streak
    KO rate
    55%
    Decision rate
    38%
    Sig. strikes/min
    5.6
    Strike accuracy
    49%
    Opponent quality
    77/100

    Recent form

    WWWLW

    Recent fight history

      Full profile →

      Raina's AI Analysis

      AI-generated
      On record since 2026-08-06

      Predicted winner

      Mike Medrano

      Confidence

      56%

      Predicted method

      TKO / KO

      Predicted round

      Round 2

      Upset potential

      High

      Risk level

      High

      Advantage model

      StrikingRob Emerson +12
      Inside workRob Emerson +11
      Ring generalshipMike Medrano +20
      CardioRob Emerson +13
      ExperienceMike Medrano +15
      Fight IQMike Medrano +21

      Why Raina made this pick

      Mike Medrano is the more complete striker here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 10 rounds.

      Rob Emerson's clearest path is landing early power before the fight settles - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 56%.

      Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a finish around round 2.

      AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.

      Lines & market comparison

      Informational
      Odds updated Last updated

      Red corner

      Mike Medrano

      -202

      Market implied win %
      66.9%
      Raina's model win %
      56%
      Return on 100 staked
      +50

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      Blue corner

      Rob Emerson

      +187

      Market implied win %
      34.8%
      Raina's model win %
      44%
      Return on 100 staked
      +187

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      Model below market

      -10.9 pts

      Edge on Mike Medrano

      0%50%100%
      Raina's model
      56%
      Market implied
      66.9%
      at -202
      Gap (model − market)
      -10.9 pts

      A positive gap means Raina rates Mike Medrano higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.

      rounds total

      Over/Under 1.5 rounds

      Over

      -125

      55.6% implied

      Under

      +105

      48.8% implied

      Method & distance markets

      • Medrano by KO/TKO+30924.4%
      • Medrano on points+19034.5%
      • Emerson by KO/TKO+29825.1%
      • Fight goes the distance-1513%

      Odds updated Updated

      Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).

      Share this pick

      On record

      BKFC · BKFC 95 Newark: Herring vs. Dodson

      Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC

      Mike Medrano vs Rob Emerson

      Main Card · Welterweight

      Raina's pick

      Mike Medrano

      56%

      Method / round

      TKO / KO

      Round 2

      Line & edge

      -202

      66.9% implied · -10.9 pts

      Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.

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