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← BKFC 95 Newark: Herring vs. Dodson

Noah Geathoun vs Dustin Bailey

Main Card · Middleweight · BKFC

Red cornerUnlisted

Noah Geathoun

Record unlisted

Age
30
Height
180 cm
Reach
183 cm
Stance
Orthodox
Weight class
Middleweight
Streak
4-fight win streak
KO rate
68%
Decision rate
23%
Sig. strikes/min
6.2
Strike accuracy
49%
Opponent quality
69/100

Recent form

WWWWL

Recent fight history

    Full profile →
    Blue cornerUnlisted

    Dustin Bailey

    Record unlisted

    Age
    30
    Height
    180 cm
    Reach
    183 cm
    Stance
    Orthodox
    Weight class
    Middleweight
    Streak
    2-fight win streak
    KO rate
    62%
    Decision rate
    31%
    Sig. strikes/min
    4.8
    Strike accuracy
    47%
    Opponent quality
    81/100

    Recent form

    WWLWL

    Recent fight history

      Full profile →

      Raina's AI Analysis

      AI-generated
      On record since 2026-08-06

      Predicted winner

      Noah Geathoun

      Confidence

      74%

      Predicted method

      TKO / KO

      Predicted round

      Round 2

      Upset potential

      Low

      Risk level

      Low

      Advantage model

      StrikingNoah Geathoun +14
      Inside workDustin Bailey +13
      Ring generalshipNoah Geathoun +12
      CardioNoah Geathoun +15
      ExperienceNoah Geathoun +17
      Fight IQNoah Geathoun +13

      Why Raina made this pick

      Noah Geathoun is the more complete striker here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 10 rounds.

      Dustin Bailey's clearest path is landing early power before the fight settles - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 74%.

      Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a finish around round 2.

      AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.

      Lines & market comparison

      Informational
      Odds updated Last updated

      Red corner

      Noah Geathoun

      -328

      Market implied win %
      76.6%
      Raina's model win %
      74%
      Return on 100 staked
      +30

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      Blue corner

      Dustin Bailey

      +294

      Market implied win %
      25.4%
      Raina's model win %
      26%
      Return on 100 staked
      +294

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      In line with market

      -2.6 pts

      Edge on Noah Geathoun

      0%50%100%
      Raina's model
      74%
      Market implied
      76.6%
      at -328
      Gap (model − market)
      -2.6 pts

      A positive gap means Raina rates Noah Geathoun higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.

      rounds total

      Over/Under 1.5 rounds

      Over

      -125

      55.6% implied

      Under

      +105

      48.8% implied

      Method & distance markets

      • Geathoun by KO/TKO+17236.8%
      • Geathoun on points+17935.8%
      • Bailey by KO/TKO+60814.1%
      • Fight goes the distance+16837.3%

      Odds updated Updated

      Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).

      Share this pick

      On record

      BKFC · BKFC 95 Newark: Herring vs. Dodson

      Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC

      Noah Geathoun vs Dustin Bailey

      Main Card · Middleweight

      Raina's pick

      Noah Geathoun

      74%

      Method / round

      TKO / KO

      Round 2

      Line & edge

      -328

      76.6% implied · -2.6 pts

      Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.

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