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← BKFC Fight Night Hershey: Pague vs. Richman

Dustin Pague vs Mike Richman

Main Event · Middleweight · BKFC

Red cornerUnlisted

Dustin Pague

Record unlisted

Age
30
Height
180 cm
Reach
183 cm
Stance
Orthodox
Weight class
Middleweight
Streak
4-fight win streak
KO rate
67%
Decision rate
29%
Sig. strikes/min
5.8
Strike accuracy
52%
Opponent quality
87/100

Recent form

WWWWL

Recent fight history

    Full profile →
    Blue cornerUnited States

    Mike Richman

    “The Marine”

    Record unlisted

    Age
    41
    Height
    175 cm
    Reach
    183 cm
    Stance
    Southpaw
    Weight class
    Middleweight
    Streak
    5-fight win streak
    KO rate
    66%
    Decision rate
    27%
    Sig. strikes/min
    5.8
    Strike accuracy
    55%
    Opponent quality
    69/100

    Recent form

    WWWWW

    Recent fight history

      Full profile →

      Raina's AI Analysis

      AI-generated
      On record since 2026-08-06

      Predicted winner

      Dustin Pague

      Confidence

      72%

      Predicted method

      TKO / KO

      Predicted round

      Round 2

      Upset potential

      Low

      Risk level

      Low

      Advantage model

      StrikingMike Richman +12
      Inside workDustin Pague +11
      Ring generalshipMike Richman +14
      CardioDustin Pague +19
      ExperienceDustin Pague +15
      Fight IQMike Richman +15

      Why Raina made this pick

      Dustin Pague is the more complete striker here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 12 rounds.

      Mike Richman's clearest path is landing early power before the fight settles - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 72%.

      Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Southpaw) and pace history all point to a finish around round 2.

      AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.

      Lines & market comparison

      Informational
      Odds updated Last updated

      Red corner

      Dustin Pague

      -314

      Market implied win %
      75.8%
      Raina's model win %
      72%
      Return on 100 staked
      +32

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      Blue corner

      Mike Richman

      +282

      Market implied win %
      26.2%
      Raina's model win %
      28%
      Return on 100 staked
      +282

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      In line with market

      -3.8 pts

      Edge on Dustin Pague

      0%50%100%
      Raina's model
      72%
      Market implied
      75.8%
      at -314
      Gap (model − market)
      -3.8 pts

      A positive gap means Raina rates Dustin Pague higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.

      rounds total

      Over/Under 1.5 rounds

      Over

      -125

      55.6% implied

      Under

      +105

      48.8% implied

      Method & distance markets

      • Pague by KO/TKO+16437.9%
      • Pague on points+20233.1%
      • Richman by KO/TKO+28326.1%
      • Fight goes the distance+15239.7%

      Odds updated Updated

      Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).

      Share this pick

      On record

      BKFC · BKFC Fight Night Hershey: Pague vs. Richman

      Friday, December 4, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC

      Dustin Pague vs Mike Richman

      Main Event · Middleweight

      Raina's pick

      Dustin Pague

      72%

      Method / round

      TKO / KO

      Round 2

      Line & edge

      -314

      75.8% implied · -3.8 pts

      Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.

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