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← BKFC Fight Night Hershey: Pague vs. Richman

Pat Carroll vs Nelson Best

Main Card · Heavyweight · BKFC

Red cornerUnlisted

Pat Carroll

Record unlisted

Age
30
Height
180 cm
Reach
183 cm
Stance
Orthodox
Weight class
Heavyweight
Streak
5-fight win streak
KO rate
53%
Decision rate
35%
Sig. strikes/min
5.9
Strike accuracy
48%
Opponent quality
55/100

Recent form

WWWWW

Recent fight history

    Full profile →
    Blue cornerUnlisted

    Nelson Best

    Record unlisted

    Age
    30
    Height
    180 cm
    Reach
    183 cm
    Stance
    Orthodox
    Weight class
    Heavyweight
    Streak
    4-fight win streak
    KO rate
    52%
    Decision rate
    43%
    Sig. strikes/min
    5.8
    Strike accuracy
    55%
    Opponent quality
    64/100

    Recent form

    WWWWL

    Recent fight history

      Full profile →

      Raina's AI Analysis

      AI-generated
      On record since 2026-08-06

      Predicted winner

      Pat Carroll

      Confidence

      64%

      Predicted method

      TKO / KO

      Predicted round

      Round 2

      Upset potential

      Moderate

      Risk level

      Medium

      Advantage model

      StrikingNelson Best +16
      Inside workPat Carroll +21
      Ring generalshipPat Carroll +16
      CardioPat Carroll +17
      ExperienceNelson Best +17
      Fight IQNelson Best +11

      Why Raina made this pick

      Pat Carroll is the more complete striker here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 10 rounds.

      Nelson Best's clearest path is landing early power before the fight settles - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 64%.

      Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a finish around round 2.

      AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.

      Lines & market comparison

      Informational
      Odds updated Last updated

      Red corner

      Pat Carroll

      -258

      Market implied win %
      72.1%
      Raina's model win %
      64%
      Return on 100 staked
      +39

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      Blue corner

      Nelson Best

      +234

      Market implied win %
      29.9%
      Raina's model win %
      36%
      Return on 100 staked
      +234

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      Model below market

      -8.1 pts

      Edge on Pat Carroll

      0%50%100%
      Raina's model
      64%
      Market implied
      72.1%
      at -258
      Gap (model − market)
      -8.1 pts

      A positive gap means Raina rates Pat Carroll higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.

      rounds total

      Over/Under 1.5 rounds

      Over

      -125

      55.6% implied

      Under

      +105

      48.8% implied

      Method & distance markets

      • Carroll by KO/TKO+29425.4%
      • Carroll on points+19434%
      • Best by KO/TKO+31424.2%
      • Fight goes the distance-11954.3%

      Odds updated Updated

      Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).

      Share this pick

      On record

      BKFC · BKFC Fight Night Hershey: Pague vs. Richman

      Friday, December 4, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC

      Pat Carroll vs Nelson Best

      Main Card · Heavyweight

      Raina's pick

      Pat Carroll

      64%

      Method / round

      TKO / KO

      Round 2

      Line & edge

      -258

      72.1% implied · -8.1 pts

      Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.

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