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← BKFC Fight Night Hershey: Pague vs. Richman

Sam Alvey vs Jonathan Miller

Co-Main · Heavyweight · BKFC

Red cornerU.S.

Sam Alvey

Record unlisted

Age
40
Height
188 cm
Reach
192 cm
Stance
Southpaw
Weight class
Heavyweight
Streak
5-fight win streak
KO rate
64%
Decision rate
26%
Sig. strikes/min
6.1
Strike accuracy
49%
Opponent quality
86/100

Recent form

WWWWW

Recent fight history

    Full profile →
    Blue cornerUnlisted

    Jonathan Miller

    Record unlisted

    Age
    30
    Height
    180 cm
    Reach
    183 cm
    Stance
    Orthodox
    Weight class
    Heavyweight
    Streak
    5-fight win streak
    KO rate
    50%
    Decision rate
    36%
    Sig. strikes/min
    5.8
    Strike accuracy
    50%
    Opponent quality
    75/100

    Recent form

    WWWWW

    Recent fight history

      Full profile →

      Raina's AI Analysis

      AI-generated
      On record since 2026-08-06

      Predicted winner

      Jonathan Miller

      Confidence

      53%

      Predicted method

      Decision

      Predicted round

      Distance (12 rounds)

      Upset potential

      High

      Risk level

      High

      Advantage model

      StrikingJonathan Miller +11
      Inside workSam Alvey +10
      Ring generalshipSam Alvey +15
      CardioSam Alvey +10
      ExperienceSam Alvey +16
      Fight IQSam Alvey +16

      Why Raina made this pick

      Jonathan Miller is the more complete striker here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 12 rounds.

      Sam Alvey's clearest path is landing early power before the fight settles - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 53%.

      Reach, stance (Southpaw vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.

      AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.

      Lines & market comparison

      Informational
      Odds updated Last updated

      Red corner

      Sam Alvey

      +169

      Market implied win %
      37.2%
      Raina's model win %
      47%
      Return on 100 staked
      +169

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      Blue corner

      Jonathan Miller

      -181

      Market implied win %
      64.4%
      Raina's model win %
      53%
      Return on 100 staked
      +55

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      Model below market

      -11.4 pts

      Edge on Jonathan Miller

      0%50%100%
      Raina's model
      53%
      Market implied
      64.4%
      at -181
      Gap (model − market)
      -11.4 pts

      A positive gap means Raina rates Jonathan Miller higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.

      rounds total

      Over/Under 2.5 rounds

      Over

      +110

      47.6% implied

      Under

      -135

      57.4% implied

      Method & distance markets

      • Miller by KO/TKO+28825.8%
      • Miller on points+26027.8%
      • Alvey by KO/TKO+33423%
      • Fight goes the distance+2480.6%

      Odds updated Updated

      Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).

      Share this pick

      On record

      BKFC · BKFC Fight Night Hershey: Pague vs. Richman

      Friday, December 4, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC

      Sam Alvey vs Jonathan Miller

      Co-Main · Heavyweight

      Raina's pick

      Jonathan Miller

      53%

      Method / round

      Decision

      Distance (12 rounds)

      Line & edge

      -181

      64.4% implied · -11.4 pts

      Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.

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