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← BKFC Fight Night Mohegan Sun: Henry vs. Trinidad

Brandon Bushaw vs Matt Denning

Main Card · Lightweight · BKFC

Red cornerUnlisted

Brandon Bushaw

Record unlisted

Age
30
Height
180 cm
Reach
183 cm
Stance
Orthodox
Weight class
Lightweight
Streak
3-fight win streak
KO rate
66%
Decision rate
25%
Sig. strikes/min
5.7
Strike accuracy
52%
Opponent quality
75/100

Recent form

WWWLW

Recent fight history

    Full profile →
    Blue cornerUnlisted

    Matt Denning

    Record unlisted

    Age
    30
    Height
    180 cm
    Reach
    183 cm
    Stance
    Orthodox
    Weight class
    Lightweight
    Streak
    2-fight win streak
    KO rate
    66%
    Decision rate
    24%
    Sig. strikes/min
    4.4
    Strike accuracy
    53%
    Opponent quality
    59/100

    Recent form

    WWLWL

    Recent fight history

      Full profile →

      Raina's AI Analysis

      AI-generated
      On record since 2026-08-06

      Predicted winner

      Matt Denning

      Confidence

      69%

      Predicted method

      Decision

      Predicted round

      Distance (10 rounds)

      Upset potential

      Moderate

      Risk level

      Medium

      Advantage model

      StrikingBrandon Bushaw +15
      Inside workBrandon Bushaw +20
      Ring generalshipBrandon Bushaw +17
      CardioMatt Denning +20
      ExperienceMatt Denning +12
      Fight IQBrandon Bushaw +12

      Why Raina made this pick

      Matt Denning is the more complete striker here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 10 rounds.

      Brandon Bushaw's clearest path is landing early power before the fight settles - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 69%.

      Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.

      AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.

      Lines & market comparison

      Informational
      Odds updated Last updated

      Red corner

      Brandon Bushaw

      +264

      Market implied win %
      27.5%
      Raina's model win %
      31%
      Return on 100 staked
      +264

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      Blue corner

      Matt Denning

      -293

      Market implied win %
      74.6%
      Raina's model win %
      69%
      Return on 100 staked
      +34

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      Model below market

      -5.6 pts

      Edge on Matt Denning

      0%50%100%
      Raina's model
      69%
      Market implied
      74.6%
      at -293
      Gap (model − market)
      -5.6 pts

      A positive gap means Raina rates Matt Denning higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.

      rounds total

      Over/Under 2.5 rounds

      Over

      +110

      47.6% implied

      Under

      -135

      57.4% implied

      Method & distance markets

      • Denning by KO/TKO+16138.3%
      • Denning on points+13143.3%
      • Bushaw by KO/TKO+26827.2%
      • Fight goes the distance-13858%

      Odds updated Updated

      Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).

      Share this pick

      On record

      BKFC · BKFC Fight Night Mohegan Sun: Henry vs. Trinidad

      Friday, August 21, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC

      Brandon Bushaw vs Matt Denning

      Main Card · Lightweight

      Raina's pick

      Matt Denning

      69%

      Method / round

      Decision

      Distance (10 rounds)

      Line & edge

      -293

      74.6% implied · -5.6 pts

      Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.

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