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← BKFC Fight Night Sturgis: Acheson vs. Jones

Clay Collard vs Daniel Keepers

Main Card · Welterweight · BKFC

Official result

Clay Collard def. Daniel Keepers

KO · Round 3 · imported automatically after the event

Red cornerU.S.

Clay Collard

“Cassius”

25-15-0

Age
33
Height
180 cm
Reach
183 cm
Stance
Orthodox
Weight class
Welterweight
Streak
3-fight win streak
KO rate
59%
Decision rate
32%
Sig. strikes/min
5.5
Strike accuracy
52%
Opponent quality
57/100

Recent form

WWWLW

Recent fight history

    Full profile →
    Blue cornerUnlisted

    Daniel Keepers

    Record unlisted

    Age
    30
    Height
    180 cm
    Reach
    183 cm
    Stance
    Orthodox
    Weight class
    Welterweight
    Streak
    3-fight win streak
    KO rate
    52%
    Decision rate
    38%
    Sig. strikes/min
    4.8
    Strike accuracy
    51%
    Opponent quality
    86/100

    Recent form

    WWWLW

    Recent fight history

      Full profile →

      Raina's AI Analysis

      AI-generated
      On record since 2026-08-06

      Predicted winner

      Clay Collard

      Confidence

      64%

      Predicted method

      TKO / KO

      Predicted round

      Round 3

      Upset potential

      Moderate

      Risk level

      Medium

      Advantage model

      StrikingDaniel Keepers +16
      Inside workDaniel Keepers +21
      Ring generalshipClay Collard +16
      CardioClay Collard +17
      ExperienceDaniel Keepers +11
      Fight IQDaniel Keepers +17

      Why Raina made this pick

      Clay Collard is the more complete striker here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 10 rounds.

      Daniel Keepers's clearest path is landing early power before the fight settles - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 64%.

      Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a finish around round 3.

      AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.

      Lines & market comparison

      Informational
      Odds updated Last updated

      Red corner

      Clay Collard

      -258

      Market implied win %
      72.1%
      Raina's model win %
      64%
      Return on 100 staked
      +39

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      Blue corner

      Daniel Keepers

      +234

      Market implied win %
      29.9%
      Raina's model win %
      36%
      Return on 100 staked
      +234

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      Model below market

      -8.1 pts

      Edge on Clay Collard

      0%50%100%
      Raina's model
      64%
      Market implied
      72.1%
      at -258
      Gap (model − market)
      -8.1 pts

      A positive gap means Raina rates Clay Collard higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.

      rounds total

      Over/Under 1.5 rounds

      Over

      -125

      55.6% implied

      Under

      +105

      48.8% implied

      Method & distance markets

      • Collard by KO/TKO+25228.4%
      • Collard on points+23429.9%
      • Keepers by KO/TKO+55215.3%
      • Fight goes the distance-4932.9%

      Odds updated Updated

      Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).

      Share this pick

      On record

      BKFC · BKFC Fight Night Sturgis: Acheson vs. Jones

      Saturday, August 8, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC

      Clay Collard vs Daniel Keepers

      Main Card · Welterweight

      Raina's pick

      Clay Collard

      64%

      Method / round

      TKO / KO

      Round 3

      Line & edge

      -258

      72.1% implied · -8.1 pts

      Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.

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