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← Moses Itauma vs. Filip Hrgović (Natural Born Thriller)

Sam Noakes vs Denys Berinchyk

Co-Main · Lightweight · Boxing

Red cornerUnlisted

Sam Noakes

Record unlisted

Age
30
Height
180 cm
Reach
183 cm
Stance
Orthodox
Weight class
Lightweight
Streak
3-fight win streak
KO rate
61%
Decision rate
35%
Sig. strikes/min
5
Strike accuracy
50%
Opponent quality
74/100

Recent form

WWWLW

Recent fight history

    Full profile →
    Blue cornerUnlisted

    Denys Berinchyk

    Record unlisted

    Age
    30
    Height
    180 cm
    Reach
    183 cm
    Stance
    Orthodox
    Weight class
    Lightweight
    Streak
    3-fight win streak
    KO rate
    63%
    Decision rate
    23%
    Sig. strikes/min
    4.6
    Strike accuracy
    55%
    Opponent quality
    76/100

    Recent form

    WWWLW

    Recent fight history

      Full profile →

      Raina's AI Analysis

      AI-generated
      On record since 2026-08-06

      Predicted winner

      Sam Noakes

      Confidence

      54%

      Predicted method

      TKO / KO

      Predicted round

      Round 2

      Upset potential

      High

      Risk level

      High

      Advantage model

      StrikingDenys Berinchyk +14
      Inside workDenys Berinchyk +13
      Ring generalshipSam Noakes +12
      CardioSam Noakes +15
      ExperienceDenys Berinchyk +17
      Fight IQSam Noakes +19

      Why Raina made this pick

      Sam Noakes is the more complete striker here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 12 rounds.

      Denys Berinchyk's clearest path is landing early power before the fight settles - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 54%.

      Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a finish around round 2.

      AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.

      Lines & market comparison

      Informational
      Odds updated Last updated

      Red corner

      Sam Noakes

      -188

      Market implied win %
      65.3%
      Raina's model win %
      54%
      Return on 100 staked
      +53

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      Blue corner

      Denys Berinchyk

      +175

      Market implied win %
      36.4%
      Raina's model win %
      46%
      Return on 100 staked
      +175

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      Model below market

      -11.3 pts

      Edge on Sam Noakes

      0%50%100%
      Raina's model
      54%
      Market implied
      65.3%
      at -188
      Gap (model − market)
      -11.3 pts

      A positive gap means Raina rates Sam Noakes higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.

      rounds total

      Over/Under 1.5 rounds

      Over

      -125

      55.6% implied

      Under

      +105

      48.8% implied

      Method & distance markets

      • Noakes by KO/TKO+14141.5%
      • Noakes on points+15938.6%
      • Berinchyk by KO/TKO+53715.7%
      • Fight goes the distance+13342.9%

      Odds updated Updated

      Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).

      Share this pick

      On record

      Boxing · Moses Itauma vs. Filip Hrgović (Natural Born Thriller)

      Saturday, August 29, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC

      Sam Noakes vs Denys Berinchyk

      Co-Main · Lightweight

      Raina's pick

      Sam Noakes

      54%

      Method / round

      TKO / KO

      Round 2

      Line & edge

      -188

      65.3% implied · -11.3 pts

      Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.

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