Tim Tszyu vs Erislandy Lara
Main Event · Middleweight · World Title · Boxing
Tim Tszyu
“"The Phoenix"”
23-3-0
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 175 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Middleweight
- Streak
- 2-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 57%
- Decision rate
- 31%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.4
- Strike accuracy
- 48%
- Opponent quality
- 86/100
Recent form
Erislandy Lara
“"The American Dream"”
32-3-0
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 175 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Southpaw
- Weight class
- Middleweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 56%
- Decision rate
- 34%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.4
- Strike accuracy
- 50%
- Opponent quality
- 82/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Tim Tszyu
Confidence
74%
Predicted method
TKO / KO
Predicted round
Round 3
Upset potential
Low
Risk level
Low
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Tim Tszyu is the more complete striker here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 12 rounds.
Erislandy Lara's clearest path is landing early power before the fight settles - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 74%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Southpaw) and pace history all point to a finish around round 3.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Tim Tszyu
-328
- Market implied win %
- 76.6%
- Raina's model win %
- 74%
- Return on 100 staked
- +30
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Erislandy Lara
+294
- Market implied win %
- 25.4%
- Raina's model win %
- 26%
- Return on 100 staked
- +294
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
In line with market
-2.6 pts
Edge on Tim Tszyu
- Raina's model
- 74%
- Market implied
- 76.6%
- at -328
- Gap (model − market)
- -2.6 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Tim Tszyu higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Tszyu by KO/TKO+22131.2%
- Tszyu on points+14041.7%
- Lara by KO/TKO+26027.8%
- Fight goes the distance+5166.2%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
Share this pick
Boxing · Tim Tszyu vs. Erislandy Lara
Sunday, December 13, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Tim Tszyu vs Erislandy Lara
Main Event · Middleweight
Raina's pick
Tim Tszyu
74%
Method / round
TKO / KO
Round 3
Line & edge
-328
76.6% implied · -2.6 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.