Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian Robertson
Co-Main · Women's Strawweight · World Title · UFC
Official result
Mackenzie Dern def. Gillian Robertson
Decision (unanimous) (49-46, 49-46, 48-47) · Round 5 · imported automatically after the event
Mackenzie Dern
16-5-0
- Age
- 33
- Height
- 162 cm
- Reach
- 165 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Women's Strawweight
- Streak
- 3-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 11%
- Sub rate
- 52%
- Decision rate
- 37%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 2.5
- Strike accuracy
- 46%
- Takedown avg
- 3.4
- Takedown defense
- 77%
- Control time
- 6:23 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 64/100
Recent form
Gillian Robertson
“The Savage”
17-8-0
- Age
- 31
- Height
- 163 cm
- Reach
- 168 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Women's Strawweight
- Streak
- 2-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 17%
- Sub rate
- 50%
- Decision rate
- 33%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.4
- Strike accuracy
- 41%
- Takedown avg
- 4.3
- Takedown defense
- 70%
- Control time
- 3:20 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 76/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Mackenzie Dern
Confidence
63%
Predicted method
Submission
Predicted round
Round 2
Upset potential
Moderate
Risk level
Medium
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Dern is the sharper submission threat of the two: black-belt guard, back takes off scrambles, and a finishing rate on the floor that Robertson's grappling does not match.
Robertson's game is takedown-led, and that is the wrong way in against Dern - every entry Robertson wins hands Dern the guard and the submission exchanges she wants.
The reason this is 63% and not higher: Dern's own takedown entries are weak, so if Robertson keeps it standing and works volume she can bank points and take a decision.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Mackenzie Dern
-251
- Market implied win %
- 71.5%
- Raina's model win %
- 63%
- Return on 100 staked
- +40
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Gillian Robertson
+228
- Market implied win %
- 30.5%
- Raina's model win %
- 37%
- Return on 100 staked
- +228
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-8.5 pts
Edge on Mackenzie Dern
- Raina's model
- 63%
- Market implied
- 71.5%
- at -251
- Gap (model − market)
- -8.5 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Mackenzie Dern higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 2.5 rounds
Over
+110
47.6% implied
Under
-135
57.4% implied
Method & distance markets
- Dern by KO/TKO+14341.2%
- Dern by decision+20432.9%
- Robertson by submission+37421.1%
- Fight goes the distance+13243.1%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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UFC · UFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry
Sunday, August 16, 2026 · 1:00 AM UTC
Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian Robertson
Co-Main · Women's Strawweight
Raina's pick
Mackenzie Dern
63%
Method / round
Submission
Round 2
Line & edge
-251
71.5% implied · -8.5 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Matchups and records checked by the desk against the promotion's official card.