Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian Robertson
Co-Main · Women's Strawweight · World Title · UFC
Mackenzie Dern
16-5-0
- Age
- 33
- Height
- 162 cm
- Reach
- 165 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Women's Strawweight
- Streak
- 3-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 11%
- Sub rate
- 52%
- Decision rate
- 37%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 2.5
- Takedown avg
- 3.4
- Takedown defense
- 77%
- Control time
- 6:23 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 64/100
Recent form
Gillian Robertson
“The Savage”
17-8-0
- Age
- 31
- Height
- 163 cm
- Reach
- 168 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Women's Strawweight
- Streak
- 2-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 17%
- Sub rate
- 50%
- Decision rate
- 33%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.4
- Takedown avg
- 4.3
- Takedown defense
- 70%
- Control time
- 3:20 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 76/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Gillian Robertson
Confidence
53%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (5 rounds)
Upset potential
High
Risk level
High
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Gillian Robertson is the more complete grappler here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 5 rounds.
Mackenzie Dern's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 53%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that reaches the judges.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Mackenzie Dern
+169
- Market implied win %
- 37.2%
- Raina's model win %
- 47%
- Return on 100 staked
- +169
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Gillian Robertson
-181
- Market implied win %
- 64.4%
- Raina's model win %
- 53%
- Return on 100 staked
- +55
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-11.4 pts
Edge on Gillian Robertson
- Raina's model
- 53%
- Market implied
- 64.4%
- at -181
- Gap (model − market)
- -11.4 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Gillian Robertson higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
Rounds total
Over/Under 2.5 rounds
Over
+110
47.6% implied
Under
-135
57.4% implied
Method & distance markets
- Robertson by KO/TKO+14341.2%
- Robertson by decision+20432.9%
- Dern by submission+37421.1%
- Fight goes the distance+13243.1%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
Share this pick
UFC · UFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry
Sunday, August 16, 2026 · 1:00 AM UTC
Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian Robertson
Co-Main · Women's Strawweight
Raina's pick
Gillian Robertson
53%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (5 rounds)
Line & edge
-181
64.4% implied · -11.4 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Matchups and records checked by the desk against the promotion's official card.