Lucas Fernando vs Rafael Tobias
Prelims · Light Heavyweight · UFC
Lucas Fernando
13-3-0
- Age
- 29
- Height
- 190 cm
- Reach
- 196 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Light Heavyweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 66%
- Sub rate
- 8%
- Decision rate
- 26%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 5.2
- Takedown avg
- 1.1
- Takedown defense
- 67%
- Control time
- 7:36 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 64/100
Recent form
Rafael Tobias
14-2-0
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 191 cm
- Reach
- 195 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Light Heavyweight
- Streak
- 4-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 30%
- Sub rate
- 20%
- Decision rate
- 50%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.3
- Takedown avg
- 3.4
- Takedown defense
- 71%
- Control time
- 6:14 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 77/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Rafael Tobias
Confidence
59%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (3 rounds)
Upset potential
High
Risk level
High
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Rafael Tobias is the more complete wrestler here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Lucas Fernando's clearest path is landing early power before the fight settles - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 59%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that reaches the judges.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Lucas Fernando
+205
- Market implied win %
- 32.8%
- Raina's model win %
- 41%
- Return on 100 staked
- +205
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Rafael Tobias
-223
- Market implied win %
- 69%
- Raina's model win %
- 59%
- Return on 100 staked
- +45
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-10 pts
Edge on Rafael Tobias
- Raina's model
- 59%
- Market implied
- 69%
- at -223
- Gap (model − market)
- -10 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Rafael Tobias higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
Rounds total
Over/Under 2.5 rounds
Over
+110
47.6% implied
Under
-135
57.4% implied
Method & distance markets
- Tobias by KO/TKO+23030.3%
- Tobias by decision+27127%
- Fernando by submission+39020.4%
- Fight goes the distance+5763.7%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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UFC · UFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry
Sunday, August 16, 2026 · 1:00 AM UTC
Lucas Fernando vs Rafael Tobias
Prelims · Light Heavyweight
Raina's pick
Rafael Tobias
59%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (3 rounds)
Line & edge
-223
69% implied · -10 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Matchups and records checked by the desk against the promotion's official card.