Shamil Gaziev vs Kennedy Nzechukwu
Main Card · Heavyweight · UFC
Shamil Gaziev
“Falcon”
14-3-0
- Age
- 34
- Height
- 196 cm
- Reach
- 201 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Heavyweight
- Streak
- 2-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 60%
- Sub rate
- 13%
- Decision rate
- 27%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.5
- Strike accuracy
- 49%
- Takedown avg
- 0.2
- Takedown defense
- 66%
- Control time
- 7:29 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 70/100
Recent form
Kennedy Nzechukwu
“African Savage”
14-6-1
- Age
- 33
- Height
- 196 cm
- Reach
- 201 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Heavyweight
- Streak
- 4-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 54%
- Sub rate
- 13%
- Decision rate
- 33%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.3
- Strike accuracy
- 49%
- Takedown avg
- 0.2
- Takedown defense
- 59%
- Control time
- 7:58 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 55/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Shamil Gaziev
Confidence
70%
Predicted method
TKO / KO
Predicted round
Round 3
Upset potential
Moderate
Risk level
Medium
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Shamil Gaziev is the more complete striker here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Kennedy Nzechukwu's clearest path is landing early power before the fight settles - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 70%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a finish around round 3.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Shamil Gaziev
-300
- Market implied win %
- 75%
- Raina's model win %
- 70%
- Return on 100 staked
- +33
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Kennedy Nzechukwu
+270
- Market implied win %
- 27%
- Raina's model win %
- 30%
- Return on 100 staked
- +270
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-5 pts
Edge on Shamil Gaziev
- Raina's model
- 70%
- Market implied
- 75%
- at -300
- Gap (model − market)
- -5 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Shamil Gaziev higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Gaziev by KO/TKO+24828.7%
- Gaziev by decision+26227.6%
- Nzechukwu by submission+59214.5%
- Fight goes the distance+2580%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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UFC · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues
Sunday, August 23, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Shamil Gaziev vs Kennedy Nzechukwu
Main Card · Heavyweight
Raina's pick
Shamil Gaziev
70%
Method / round
TKO / KO
Round 3
Line & edge
-300
75% implied · -5 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Matchups and records checked by the desk against the promotion's official card.