Nasrat Haqparast vs Chris Padilla
Prelims · Lightweight · UFC
Nasrat Haqparast
18-6-0
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 175 cm
- Reach
- 180 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Streak
- 3-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 67%
- Sub rate
- 4%
- Decision rate
- 29%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 5.8
- Strike accuracy
- 47%
- Takedown avg
- 0.2
- Takedown defense
- 75%
- Control time
- 4:37 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 65/100
Recent form
Chris Padilla
“Taco”
17-6-1
- Age
- 34
- Height
- 175 cm
- Reach
- 178 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Streak
- Rebounding from a loss
- KO rate
- 40%
- Sub rate
- 27%
- Decision rate
- 33%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.3
- Strike accuracy
- 47%
- Takedown avg
- 1.8
- Takedown defense
- 67%
- Control time
- 4:51 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 68/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Nasrat Haqparast
Confidence
74%
Predicted method
TKO / KO
Predicted round
Round 3
Upset potential
Low
Risk level
Low
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Nasrat Haqparast is the more complete striker here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Chris Padilla's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 74%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a finish around round 3.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Nasrat Haqparast
-328
- Market implied win %
- 76.6%
- Raina's model win %
- 74%
- Return on 100 staked
- +30
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Chris Padilla
+294
- Market implied win %
- 25.4%
- Raina's model win %
- 26%
- Return on 100 staked
- +294
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
In line with market
-2.6 pts
Edge on Nasrat Haqparast
- Raina's model
- 74%
- Market implied
- 76.6%
- at -328
- Gap (model − market)
- -2.6 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Nasrat Haqparast higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Haqparast by KO/TKO+25028.6%
- Haqparast by decision+25428.2%
- Padilla by submission+24229.2%
- Fight goes the distance-7944.1%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
Share this pick
UFC · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues
Sunday, August 23, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Nasrat Haqparast vs Chris Padilla
Prelims · Lightweight
Raina's pick
Nasrat Haqparast
74%
Method / round
TKO / KO
Round 3
Line & edge
-328
76.6% implied · -2.6 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Matchups and records checked by the desk against the promotion's official card.