Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues
Main Event · Middleweight · UFC
Anthony Hernandez
“Fluffy”
15-3-0
- Age
- 32
- Height
- 183 cm
- Reach
- 188 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Middleweight
- Streak
- Rebounding from a loss
- KO rate
- 20%
- Sub rate
- 47%
- Decision rate
- 33%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.6
- Strike accuracy
- 52%
- Takedown avg
- 5.4
- Takedown defense
- 70%
- Control time
- 8:05 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 87/100
Recent form
Recent fight history
- Lvs Sean Strickland - TKO (Punches, Round 3)UFC Fight Night 267 · 2026-02-21
- Wvs Roman Dolidze - Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)UFC on ESPN 72 · 2025-08-09
- Wvs Brendan Allen - Decision (Unanimous)UFC Fight Night 252 · 2025-02-22
- Wvs Michel Pereira - TKO (Elbows)UFC Fight Night 245 · 2024-10-19
Gregory Rodrigues
“Robocop”
19-6-0
- Age
- 34
- Height
- 191 cm
- Reach
- 193 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Middleweight
- Streak
- 3-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 58%
- Sub rate
- 21%
- Decision rate
- 21%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.9
- Strike accuracy
- 50%
- Takedown avg
- 2.4
- Takedown defense
- 62%
- Control time
- 3:20 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 84/100
Recent form
Recent fight history
- Wvs Brunno Ferreira - KO (Punch, Round 1)UFC 326 · 2026-03-07
- Wvs Roman Kopylov - Decision (Unanimous)UFC 322 · 2025-11-15
- Wvs Jack Hermansson - KO (Punch, Round 1)UFC 317 · 2025-06-28
- Lvs Jared Cannonier - TKO (Punches, Round 4)UFC Fight Night 251 · 2025-02-15
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Anthony Hernandez
Confidence
62%
Predicted method
Submission
Predicted round
Round 3
Upset potential
Moderate
Risk level
Medium
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Hernandez's 5.4 takedowns per 15 minutes and 8:05 of control time attack the one gap in Rodrigues' game: a 62% takedown defence.
Rodrigues wins early if it stays standing - 58% of his wins are knockouts, and he stopped Hermansson and Ferreira inside a round.
Hernandez was stopped by Sean Strickland in February, so his chin is a live question in the first five minutes.
The model leans to a later submission because Rodrigues' output drops sharply after round two while Hernandez's grappling volume does not.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Anthony Hernandez
-145
- Market implied win %
- 59.2%
- Raina's model win %
- 62%
- Return on 100 staked
- +69
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Gregory Rodrigues
+120
- Market implied win %
- 45.5%
- Raina's model win %
- 38%
- Return on 100 staked
- +120
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
In line with market
+2.8 pts
Edge on Anthony Hernandez
- Raina's model
- 62%
- Market implied
- 59.2%
- at -145
- Gap (model − market)
- +2.8 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Anthony Hernandez higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 3.5 rounds
Over
-120
54.5% implied
Under
+100
50% implied
Method & distance markets
- Hernandez by submission+26027.8%
- Hernandez by decision+21032.3%
- Rodrigues by KO/TKO+17536.4%
- Fight goes the distance+14540.8%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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UFC · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues
Sunday, August 23, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues
Main Event · Middleweight
Raina's pick
Anthony Hernandez
62%
Method / round
Submission
Round 3
Line & edge
-145
59.2% implied · +2.8 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Matchups and records checked by the desk against the promotion's official card.