Carli Judice vs Jeisla Chaves
Main Card · Women's Flyweight · UFC
Carli Judice
“Baby Shark”
6-2-0
- Age
- 26
- Height
- 165 cm
- Reach
- 168 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Women's Flyweight
- Streak
- 4-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 60%
- Sub rate
- 4%
- Decision rate
- 36%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.9
- Strike accuracy
- 51%
- Takedown avg
- 0.6
- Takedown defense
- 71%
- Control time
- 3:50 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 65/100
Recent form
Jeisla Chaves
8-0-0
- Age
- 29
- Height
- 163 cm
- Reach
- 166 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Women's Flyweight
- Streak
- Rebounding from a loss
- KO rate
- 22%
- Sub rate
- 43%
- Decision rate
- 35%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3
- Strike accuracy
- 43%
- Takedown avg
- 4.2
- Takedown defense
- 71%
- Control time
- 2:32 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 86/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Carli Judice
Confidence
58%
Predicted method
TKO / KO
Predicted round
Round 1
Upset potential
High
Risk level
High
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Carli Judice is the more complete striker here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Jeisla Chaves's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 58%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a finish around round 1.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Carli Judice
-216
- Market implied win %
- 68.4%
- Raina's model win %
- 58%
- Return on 100 staked
- +46
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Jeisla Chaves
+199
- Market implied win %
- 33.4%
- Raina's model win %
- 42%
- Return on 100 staked
- +199
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-10.4 pts
Edge on Carli Judice
- Raina's model
- 58%
- Market implied
- 68.4%
- at -216
- Gap (model − market)
- -10.4 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Carli Judice higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Judice by KO/TKO+20233.1%
- Judice by decision+25528.2%
- Chaves by submission+48017.2%
- Fight goes the distance-4129.1%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
Share this pick
UFC · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues
Sunday, August 23, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Carli Judice vs Jeisla Chaves
Main Card · Women's Flyweight
Raina's pick
Carli Judice
58%
Method / round
TKO / KO
Round 1
Line & edge
-216
68.4% implied · -10.4 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Matchups and records checked by the desk against the promotion's official card.