Islam Makhachev vs Ian Machado Garry
Main Event · Welterweight · World Title · UFC
Islam Makhachev
28-1-0
- Age
- 34
- Height
- 178 cm
- Reach
- 179 cm
- Stance
- Southpaw
- Weight class
- Welterweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 18%
- Sub rate
- 46%
- Decision rate
- 36%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 2.45
- Takedown avg
- 3.1
- Takedown defense
- 88%
- Control time
- 6:12 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 96/100
Recent form
Recent fight history
- Wvs Jack Della Maddalena - Decision (Unanimous)UFC 322 · 2025-11-15
- Wvs Renato Moicano - Submission (Brabo Choke)UFC 311 · 2025-01-18
- Wvs Dustin Poirier - Submission (Brabo Choke)UFC 302 · 2024-06-01
- Wvs Alexander Volkanovski - KO (Head Kick)UFC 294 · 2023-10-21
Ian Machado Garry
“The Future”
17-1-0
- Age
- 28
- Height
- 191 cm
- Reach
- 189 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Welterweight
- Streak
- 2-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 41%
- Sub rate
- 6%
- Decision rate
- 53%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.78
- Takedown avg
- 0.92
- Takedown defense
- 74%
- Control time
- 1:30 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 91/100
Recent form
Recent fight history
- Wvs Belal Muhammad - Decision (Unanimous)UFC Fight Night 265 · 2025-11-22
- Wvs Carlos Prates - Decision (Unanimous)UFC on ESPN 66 · 2025-04-26
- Lvs Shavkat Rakhmonov - Decision (Unanimous)UFC 310 · 2024-12-07
- Wvs Michael Page - Decision (Unanimous)UFC 303 · 2024-06-29
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Islam Makhachev
Confidence
74%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (5 rounds)
Upset potential
Moderate
Risk level
Medium
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Makhachev averages 3.1 takedowns per 15 minutes at welterweight and Garry has never faced a grappler with that entry rate over five rounds.
Garry's clearest edge is range: a 189 cm reach against 179 cm, plus 4.78 significant strikes per minute versus Makhachev's 2.45.
Makhachev's title defence pattern is control-first: 6:12 of average control time per fight is where Garry's volume disappears.
Confidence stops short of 80% because Garry has only been beaten once, by decision, and never finished.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Islam Makhachev
-340
- Market implied win %
- 77.3%
- Raina's model win %
- 74%
- Return on 100 staked
- +29
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Ian Machado Garry
+270
- Market implied win %
- 27%
- Raina's model win %
- 26%
- Return on 100 staked
- +270
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
In line with market
-3.3 pts
Edge on Islam Makhachev
- Raina's model
- 74%
- Market implied
- 77.3%
- at -340
- Gap (model − market)
- -3.3 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Islam Makhachev higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
Rounds total
Over/Under 4.5 rounds
Over
-150
60% implied
Under
+125
44.4% implied
Method & distance markets
- Makhachev by submission+19034.5%
- Makhachev by decision+12045.5%
- Garry by KO/TKO+65013.3%
- Fight goes the distance-11052.4%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
Share this pick
UFC · UFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry
Sunday, August 16, 2026 · 1:00 AM UTC
Islam Makhachev vs Ian Machado Garry
Main Event · Welterweight
Raina's pick
Islam Makhachev
74%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (5 rounds)
Line & edge
-340
77.3% implied · -3.3 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Matchups and records checked by the desk against the promotion's official card.