MarQuel Mederos vs Mason Jones
Prelims · Lightweight · UFC
MarQuel Mederos
11-1-1
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 185 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Streak
- 3-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 31%
- Sub rate
- 24%
- Decision rate
- 45%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.8
- Strike accuracy
- 52%
- Takedown avg
- 3
- Takedown defense
- 70%
- Control time
- 0:49 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 60/100
Recent form
Mason Jones
“The Dragon”
18-2-0
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 18%
- Sub rate
- 21%
- Decision rate
- 61%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.1
- Strike accuracy
- 44%
- Takedown avg
- 4.4
- Takedown defense
- 73%
- Control time
- 6:40 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 58/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
MarQuel Mederos
Confidence
62%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (3 rounds)
Upset potential
Moderate
Risk level
Medium
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
MarQuel Mederos is the more complete all-rounder here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Mason Jones's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 62%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
MarQuel Mederos
-244
- Market implied win %
- 70.9%
- Raina's model win %
- 62%
- Return on 100 staked
- +41
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Mason Jones
+222
- Market implied win %
- 31.1%
- Raina's model win %
- 38%
- Return on 100 staked
- +222
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-8.9 pts
Edge on MarQuel Mederos
- Raina's model
- 62%
- Market implied
- 70.9%
- at -244
- Gap (model − market)
- -8.9 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates MarQuel Mederos higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Mederos by KO/TKO+29925.1%
- Mederos by decision+23429.9%
- Jones by submission+24329.2%
- Fight goes the distance+11446.7%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
Share this pick
UFC · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues
Sunday, August 23, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
MarQuel Mederos vs Mason Jones
Prelims · Lightweight
Raina's pick
MarQuel Mederos
62%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (3 rounds)
Line & edge
-244
70.9% implied · -8.9 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Matchups and records checked by the desk against the promotion's official card.