Myktybek Orolbai vs Jeremiah Wells
Prelims · Welterweight · UFC
Myktybek Orolbai
16-2-1
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 178 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Southpaw
- Weight class
- Welterweight
- Streak
- 4-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 24%
- Sub rate
- 32%
- Decision rate
- 44%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3
- Takedown avg
- 4.5
- Takedown defense
- 72%
- Control time
- 1:07 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 62/100
Recent form
Jeremiah Wells
13-4-1
- Age
- 38
- Height
- 178 cm
- Reach
- 188 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Welterweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 66%
- Sub rate
- 11%
- Decision rate
- 23%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.5
- Takedown avg
- 0.4
- Takedown defense
- 68%
- Control time
- 1:47 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 76/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Jeremiah Wells
Confidence
67%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (3 rounds)
Upset potential
Moderate
Risk level
Medium
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Jeremiah Wells is the more complete striker here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Myktybek Orolbai's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 67%.
Reach, stance (Southpaw vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that reaches the judges.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Myktybek Orolbai
+252
- Market implied win %
- 28.4%
- Raina's model win %
- 33%
- Return on 100 staked
- +252
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Jeremiah Wells
-279
- Market implied win %
- 73.6%
- Raina's model win %
- 67%
- Return on 100 staked
- +36
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-6.6 pts
Edge on Jeremiah Wells
- Raina's model
- 67%
- Market implied
- 73.6%
- at -279
- Gap (model − market)
- -6.6 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Jeremiah Wells higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
Rounds total
Over/Under 2.5 rounds
Over
+110
47.6% implied
Under
-135
57.4% implied
Method & distance markets
- Wells by KO/TKO+17236.8%
- Wells by decision+25528.2%
- Orolbai by submission+43418.7%
- Fight goes the distance-5234.2%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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UFC · UFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry
Sunday, August 16, 2026 · 1:00 AM UTC
Myktybek Orolbai vs Jeremiah Wells
Prelims · Welterweight
Raina's pick
Jeremiah Wells
67%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (3 rounds)
Line & edge
-279
73.6% implied · -6.6 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Matchups and records checked by the desk against the promotion's official card.