Alex Perez vs Su Mudaerji
Main Card · Flyweight · UFC
Alex Perez
26-10-0
- Age
- 33
- Height
- 168 cm
- Reach
- 170 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Flyweight
- Streak
- 4-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 30%
- Sub rate
- 31%
- Decision rate
- 39%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3
- Strike accuracy
- 44%
- Takedown avg
- 3.8
- Takedown defense
- 84%
- Control time
- 1:16 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 58/100
Recent form
Su Mudaerji
“The Wolf Boy”
19-7-0
- Age
- 29
- Height
- 173 cm
- Reach
- 178 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Flyweight
- Streak
- 4-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 60%
- Sub rate
- 7%
- Decision rate
- 33%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 6.1
- Strike accuracy
- 53%
- Takedown avg
- 0.6
- Takedown defense
- 74%
- Control time
- 7:54 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 82/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Alex Perez
Confidence
62%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (3 rounds)
Upset potential
Moderate
Risk level
Medium
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Alex Perez is the more complete wrestler here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Su Mudaerji's clearest path is landing early power before the fight settles - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 62%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Alex Perez
-244
- Market implied win %
- 70.9%
- Raina's model win %
- 62%
- Return on 100 staked
- +41
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Su Mudaerji
+222
- Market implied win %
- 31.1%
- Raina's model win %
- 38%
- Return on 100 staked
- +222
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-8.9 pts
Edge on Alex Perez
- Raina's model
- 62%
- Market implied
- 70.9%
- at -244
- Gap (model − market)
- -8.9 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Alex Perez higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Perez by KO/TKO+18335.3%
- Perez by decision+15339.5%
- Mudaerji by submission+41119.6%
- Fight goes the distance-8746.5%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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UFC · UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs Song
Saturday, August 29, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC
Alex Perez vs Su Mudaerji
Main Card · Flyweight
Raina's pick
Alex Perez
62%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (3 rounds)
Line & edge
-244
70.9% implied · -8.9 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Matchups and records checked by the desk against the promotion's official card.