Abubakar Nurmagomedov vs David Martinez
Main Card · Welterweight · PFL
Abubakar Nurmagomedov
Record unlisted
- Age
- 36
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Welterweight
- Streak
- 2-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 34%
- Sub rate
- 22%
- Decision rate
- 44%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4
- Strike accuracy
- 48%
- Takedown avg
- 2.9
- Takedown defense
- 66%
- Control time
- 5:18 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 87/100
Recent form
David Martinez
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Welterweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 39%
- Sub rate
- 22%
- Decision rate
- 39%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.7
- Strike accuracy
- 48%
- Takedown avg
- 2.2
- Takedown defense
- 70%
- Control time
- 4:07 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 64/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Abubakar Nurmagomedov
Confidence
76%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (3 rounds)
Upset potential
Low
Risk level
Low
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Abubakar Nurmagomedov is the more complete all-rounder here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
David Martinez's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 76%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Abubakar Nurmagomedov
-342
- Market implied win %
- 77.4%
- Raina's model win %
- 76%
- Return on 100 staked
- +29
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
David Martinez
+306
- Market implied win %
- 24.6%
- Raina's model win %
- 24%
- Return on 100 staked
- +306
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
In line with market
-1.4 pts
Edge on Abubakar Nurmagomedov
- Raina's model
- 76%
- Market implied
- 77.4%
- at -342
- Gap (model − market)
- -1.4 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Abubakar Nurmagomedov higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Nurmagomedov by KO/TKO+32023.8%
- Nurmagomedov by decision+12444.6%
- Martinez by submission+34022.7%
- Fight goes the distance+2878.1%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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Abubakar Nurmagomedov vs David Martinez
Main Card · Welterweight
Raina's pick
Abubakar Nurmagomedov
76%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (3 rounds)
Line & edge
-342
77.4% implied · -1.4 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.