Alexei Pergande vs Akhmed Magomedov
Prelims · Lightweight · PFL
Alexei Pergande
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 30%
- Sub rate
- 24%
- Decision rate
- 46%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.4
- Strike accuracy
- 46%
- Takedown avg
- 2.7
- Takedown defense
- 68%
- Control time
- 6:13 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 76/100
Recent form
Akhmed Magomedov
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Streak
- 2-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 36%
- Sub rate
- 22%
- Decision rate
- 42%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.2
- Strike accuracy
- 51%
- Takedown avg
- 2
- Takedown defense
- 73%
- Control time
- 1:51 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 82/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Alexei Pergande
Confidence
56%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (3 rounds)
Upset potential
High
Risk level
High
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Alexei Pergande is the more complete all-rounder here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Akhmed Magomedov's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 56%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Alexei Pergande
-202
- Market implied win %
- 66.9%
- Raina's model win %
- 56%
- Return on 100 staked
- +50
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Akhmed Magomedov
+187
- Market implied win %
- 34.8%
- Raina's model win %
- 44%
- Return on 100 staked
- +187
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-10.9 pts
Edge on Alexei Pergande
- Raina's model
- 56%
- Market implied
- 66.9%
- at -202
- Gap (model − market)
- -10.9 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Alexei Pergande higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Pergande by KO/TKO+19034.5%
- Pergande by decision+22630.7%
- Magomedov by submission+50816.4%
- Fight goes the distance+18734.8%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
Share this pick
PFL · PFL Dubai: Nemkov vs. Bilostenniy
Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Alexei Pergande vs Akhmed Magomedov
Prelims · Lightweight
Raina's pick
Alexei Pergande
56%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (3 rounds)
Line & edge
-202
66.9% implied · -10.9 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.