Abdoul Abdouraguimov vs Andreeas Binder
Main Card · Welterweight · PFL
Abdoul Abdouraguimov
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Welterweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 35%
- Sub rate
- 24%
- Decision rate
- 41%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.6
- Strike accuracy
- 51%
- Takedown avg
- 1.7
- Takedown defense
- 77%
- Control time
- 0:36 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 79/100
Recent form
Andreeas Binder
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Welterweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 35%
- Sub rate
- 20%
- Decision rate
- 45%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.8
- Strike accuracy
- 44%
- Takedown avg
- 1.5
- Takedown defense
- 66%
- Control time
- 5:32 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 62/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Abdoul Abdouraguimov
Confidence
56%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (3 rounds)
Upset potential
High
Risk level
High
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Abdoul Abdouraguimov is the more complete all-rounder here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Andreeas Binder's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 56%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Abdoul Abdouraguimov
-202
- Market implied win %
- 66.9%
- Raina's model win %
- 56%
- Return on 100 staked
- +50
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Andreeas Binder
+187
- Market implied win %
- 34.8%
- Raina's model win %
- 44%
- Return on 100 staked
- +187
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-10.9 pts
Edge on Abdoul Abdouraguimov
- Raina's model
- 56%
- Market implied
- 66.9%
- at -202
- Gap (model − market)
- -10.9 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Abdoul Abdouraguimov higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Abdouraguimov by KO/TKO+17935.8%
- Abdouraguimov by decision+25028.6%
- Binder by submission+57414.8%
- Fight goes the distance-16061.5%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
Share this pick
PFL · PFL Lyon: Lapilus vs. McKee
Saturday, December 19, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Abdoul Abdouraguimov vs Andreeas Binder
Main Card · Welterweight
Raina's pick
Abdoul Abdouraguimov
56%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (3 rounds)
Line & edge
-202
66.9% implied · -10.9 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.