Taylor Lapilus vs Mitchell McKee
Main Event · Bantamweight · World Title · PFL
Taylor Lapilus
“Double Impact”
Record unlisted
- Age
- 34
- Height
- 168 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Bantamweight
- Streak
- 2-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 32%
- Sub rate
- 30%
- Decision rate
- 38%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.7
- Strike accuracy
- 45%
- Takedown avg
- 1.5
- Takedown defense
- 82%
- Control time
- 7:32 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 83/100
Recent form
Mitchell McKee
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Bantamweight
- Streak
- 2-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 31%
- Sub rate
- 21%
- Decision rate
- 48%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4
- Strike accuracy
- 44%
- Takedown avg
- 2.6
- Takedown defense
- 81%
- Control time
- 3:18 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 63/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Mitchell McKee
Confidence
67%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (5 rounds)
Upset potential
Moderate
Risk level
Medium
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Mitchell McKee is the more complete all-rounder here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 5 rounds.
Taylor Lapilus's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 67%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Taylor Lapilus
+252
- Market implied win %
- 28.4%
- Raina's model win %
- 33%
- Return on 100 staked
- +252
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Mitchell McKee
-279
- Market implied win %
- 73.6%
- Raina's model win %
- 67%
- Return on 100 staked
- +36
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-6.6 pts
Edge on Mitchell McKee
- Raina's model
- 67%
- Market implied
- 73.6%
- at -279
- Gap (model − market)
- -6.6 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Mitchell McKee higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 2.5 rounds
Over
+110
47.6% implied
Under
-135
57.4% implied
Method & distance markets
- McKee by KO/TKO+18535.1%
- McKee by decision+27426.7%
- Lapilus by submission+57014.9%
- Fight goes the distance-6740.1%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
Share this pick
PFL · PFL Lyon: Lapilus vs. McKee
Saturday, December 19, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Taylor Lapilus vs Mitchell McKee
Main Event · Bantamweight
Raina's pick
Mitchell McKee
67%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (5 rounds)
Line & edge
-279
73.6% implied · -6.6 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.