Gino van Steenis vs Robert Watley
Main Card · Lightweight · PFL
Gino van Steenis
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 28%
- Sub rate
- 25%
- Decision rate
- 47%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.4
- Takedown avg
- 2.4
- Takedown defense
- 75%
- Control time
- 2:05 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 80/100
Recent form
Robert Watley
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Streak
- Rebounding from a loss
- KO rate
- 40%
- Sub rate
- 28%
- Decision rate
- 32%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.1
- Takedown avg
- 1.4
- Takedown defense
- 67%
- Control time
- 2:21 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 67/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Robert Watley
Confidence
73%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (3 rounds)
Upset potential
Low
Risk level
Low
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Robert Watley is the more complete all-rounder here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Gino van Steenis's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 73%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that reaches the judges.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Gino van Steenis
+288
- Market implied win %
- 25.8%
- Raina's model win %
- 27%
- Return on 100 staked
- +288
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Robert Watley
-321
- Market implied win %
- 76.2%
- Raina's model win %
- 73%
- Return on 100 staked
- +31
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
In line with market
-3.2 pts
Edge on Robert Watley
- Raina's model
- 73%
- Market implied
- 76.2%
- at -321
- Gap (model − market)
- -3.2 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Robert Watley higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
Rounds total
Over/Under 2.5 rounds
Over
+110
47.6% implied
Under
-135
57.4% implied
Method & distance markets
- Watley by KO/TKO+14940.2%
- Watley by decision+22530.8%
- Steenis by submission+42219.2%
- Fight goes the distance-2318.7%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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Gino van Steenis vs Robert Watley
Main Card · Lightweight
Raina's pick
Robert Watley
73%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (3 rounds)
Line & edge
-321
76.2% implied · -3.2 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.