Magomed Magomedov vs Daniel Marcos
Main Card · Bantamweight · PFL
Magomed Magomedov
“Tiger”
22-5-0
- Age
- 34
- Height
- 168 cm
- Reach
- 175 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Bantamweight
- Streak
- 4-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 10%
- Sub rate
- 42%
- Decision rate
- 48%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.1
- Takedown avg
- 4.6
- Takedown defense
- 68%
- Control time
- 7:22 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 61/100
Recent form
Daniel Marcos
18-1-0
- Age
- 33
- Height
- 170 cm
- Reach
- 175 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Bantamweight
- Streak
- 2-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 23%
- Sub rate
- 27%
- Decision rate
- 50%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.6
- Takedown avg
- 4.8
- Takedown defense
- 76%
- Control time
- 6:12 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 54/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Magomed Magomedov
Confidence
76%
Predicted method
Submission
Predicted round
Round 1
Upset potential
Low
Risk level
Low
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Magomed Magomedov is the more complete grappler here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Daniel Marcos's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 76%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a finish around round 1.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Magomed Magomedov
-342
- Market implied win %
- 77.4%
- Raina's model win %
- 76%
- Return on 100 staked
- +29
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Daniel Marcos
+306
- Market implied win %
- 24.6%
- Raina's model win %
- 24%
- Return on 100 staked
- +306
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
In line with market
-1.4 pts
Edge on Magomed Magomedov
- Raina's model
- 76%
- Market implied
- 77.4%
- at -342
- Gap (model − market)
- -1.4 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Magomed Magomedov higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
Rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Magomedov by KO/TKO+26227.6%
- Magomedov by decision+16637.6%
- Marcos by submission+54415.5%
- Fight goes the distance-11%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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Saturday, August 22, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Magomed Magomedov vs Daniel Marcos
Main Card · Bantamweight
Raina's pick
Magomed Magomedov
76%
Method / round
Submission
Round 1
Line & edge
-342
77.4% implied · -1.4 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.