Marcirley Alves vs Gustavo Oliveira
Main Card · Bantamweight · PFL
Marcirley Alves
“Durin”
15-5-0
- Age
- 27
- Height
- 163 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Bantamweight
- Streak
- Rebounding from a loss
- KO rate
- 65%
- Sub rate
- 6%
- Decision rate
- 29%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.7
- Takedown avg
- 0.9
- Takedown defense
- 59%
- Control time
- 3:51 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 79/100
Recent form
Gustavo Oliveira
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Bantamweight
- Streak
- 2-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 28%
- Sub rate
- 22%
- Decision rate
- 50%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.5
- Takedown avg
- 1.5
- Takedown defense
- 76%
- Control time
- 6:50 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 84/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Marcirley Alves
Confidence
60%
Predicted method
TKO / KO
Predicted round
Round 3
Upset potential
High
Risk level
High
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Marcirley Alves is the more complete striker here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Gustavo Oliveira's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 60%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a finish around round 3.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Marcirley Alves
-230
- Market implied win %
- 69.7%
- Raina's model win %
- 60%
- Return on 100 staked
- +43
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Gustavo Oliveira
+211
- Market implied win %
- 32.2%
- Raina's model win %
- 40%
- Return on 100 staked
- +211
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-9.7 pts
Edge on Marcirley Alves
- Raina's model
- 60%
- Market implied
- 69.7%
- at -230
- Gap (model − market)
- -9.7 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Marcirley Alves higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
Rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Alves by KO/TKO+17536.4%
- Alves by decision+21032.3%
- Oliveira by submission+61813.9%
- Fight goes the distance-4531%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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Marcirley Alves vs Gustavo Oliveira
Main Card · Bantamweight
Raina's pick
Marcirley Alves
60%
Method / round
TKO / KO
Round 3
Line & edge
-230
69.7% implied · -9.7 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.