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← RAF 12: Dvalishvili vs. Cejudo 2

Evan Wick vs Jason Nolf

Main Card · Middleweight · World Title · Real American Freestyle

Red cornerUnlisted

Evan Wick

Record unlisted

Age
30
Height
180 cm
Reach
183 cm
Stance
Orthodox
Weight class
Middleweight
Streak
3-fight win streak
Pin rate
33%
Tech-fall rate
21%
Points-decision rate
46%
Takedowns / match
2.3
Takedown defense
71%
Ride time
6:52 / fight
Opponent quality
61/100

Recent form

WWWLW

Recent fight history

    Full profile →
    Blue cornerUnlisted

    Jason Nolf

    Record unlisted

    Age
    30
    Height
    180 cm
    Reach
    183 cm
    Stance
    Orthodox
    Weight class
    Middleweight
    Streak
    3-fight win streak
    Pin rate
    32%
    Tech-fall rate
    30%
    Points-decision rate
    38%
    Takedowns / match
    1.3
    Takedown defense
    82%
    Ride time
    6:41 / fight
    Opponent quality
    68/100

    Recent form

    WWWLW

    Recent fight history

      Full profile →

      Raina's AI Analysis

      AI-generated
      On record since 2026-08-06

      Predicted winner

      Evan Wick

      Confidence

      54%

      Predicted method

      Decision on points

      Predicted period

      Full time (2 periods)

      Upset potential

      High

      Risk level

      High

      Advantage model

      Hand fightingEvan Wick +14
      Mat wrestlingJason Nolf +13
      TakedownsJason Nolf +12
      Gas tankJason Nolf +21
      ExperienceJason Nolf +23
      Mat IQEvan Wick +13

      Why Raina made this pick

      Evan Wick is the more complete all-round wrestler here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 2 periods.

      Jason Nolf's clearest path is chaining takedowns and building points from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 54%.

      Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a match that goes to the officials.

      AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.

      Lines & market comparison

      Informational
      Odds updated Last updated

      Red corner

      Evan Wick

      -188

      Market implied win %
      65.3%
      Raina's model win %
      54%
      Return on 100 staked
      +53

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      Blue corner

      Jason Nolf

      +175

      Market implied win %
      36.4%
      Raina's model win %
      46%
      Return on 100 staked
      +175

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      Model below market

      -11.3 pts

      Edge on Evan Wick

      0%50%100%
      Raina's model
      54%
      Market implied
      65.3%
      at -188
      Gap (model − market)
      -11.3 pts

      A positive gap means Raina rates Evan Wick higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.

      periods total

      Over/Under 1.5 periods

      Over

      -125

      55.6% implied

      Under

      +105

      48.8% implied

      Method & distance markets

      • Wick by fall+21731.5%
      • Wick on points+14141.5%
      • Nolf by technical superiority+40819.7%
      • Match goes the full two periods-12154.8%

      Odds updated Updated

      Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).

      Share this pick

      On record

      Real American Freestyle · RAF 12: Dvalishvili vs. Cejudo 2

      Saturday, August 22, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC

      Evan Wick vs Jason Nolf

      Main Card · Middleweight

      Raina's pick

      Evan Wick

      54%

      Method / round

      Decision on points

      Full time (2 periods)

      Line & edge

      -188

      65.3% implied · -11.3 pts

      Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.

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