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← RAF 12: Dvalishvili vs. Cejudo 2

Gable Steveson vs Anthony Cassioppi

Main Card · Heavyweight · Real American Freestyle

Red cornerUnlisted

Gable Steveson

4-0-0

Age
30
Height
185 cm
Reach
183 cm
Stance
Orthodox
Weight class
Heavyweight
Streak
3-fight win streak
KO rate
49%
Sub rate
11%
Decision rate
40%
Sig. strikes/min
4.3
Takedown avg
0.8
Takedown defense
71%
Control time
4:50 / fight
Opponent quality
65/100

Recent form

WWWLW

Recent fight history

    Full profile →
    Blue cornerUnlisted

    Anthony Cassioppi

    Record unlisted

    Age
    30
    Height
    180 cm
    Reach
    183 cm
    Stance
    Orthodox
    Weight class
    Heavyweight
    Streak
    2-fight win streak
    KO rate
    33%
    Sub rate
    18%
    Decision rate
    49%
    Sig. strikes/min
    3.4
    Takedown avg
    3
    Takedown defense
    71%
    Control time
    2:36 / fight
    Opponent quality
    58/100

    Recent form

    WWWLW

    Recent fight history

      Full profile →

      Raina's AI Analysis

      AI-generated
      On record since 2026-08-06

      Predicted winner

      Gable Steveson

      Confidence

      60%

      Predicted method

      TKO / KO

      Predicted round

      Round 1

      Upset potential

      High

      Risk level

      High

      Advantage model

      StrikingGable Steveson +12
      GrapplingAnthony Cassioppi +11
      WrestlingAnthony Cassioppi +14
      CardioGable Steveson +7
      ExperienceAnthony Cassioppi +21
      Fight IQAnthony Cassioppi +27

      Why Raina made this pick

      Gable Steveson is the more complete striker here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.

      Anthony Cassioppi's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 60%.

      Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a finish around round 1.

      AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.

      Lines & market comparison

      Informational
      Odds updated Last updated

      Red corner

      Gable Steveson

      -230

      Market implied win %
      69.7%
      Raina's model win %
      60%
      Return on 100 staked
      +43

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      Blue corner

      Anthony Cassioppi

      +211

      Market implied win %
      32.2%
      Raina's model win %
      40%
      Return on 100 staked
      +211

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      Model below market

      -9.7 pts

      Edge on Gable Steveson

      0%50%100%
      Raina's model
      60%
      Market implied
      69.7%
      at -230
      Gap (model − market)
      -9.7 pts

      A positive gap means Raina rates Gable Steveson higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.

      Rounds total

      Over/Under 1.5 rounds

      Over

      -125

      55.6% implied

      Under

      +105

      48.8% implied

      Method & distance markets

      • Steveson by KO/TKO+25528.2%
      • Steveson by decision+24229.2%
      • Cassioppi by submission+57514.8%
      • Fight goes the distance+12145.2%

      Odds updated Updated

      Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).

      Share this pick

      On record

      Real American Freestyle · RAF 12: Dvalishvili vs. Cejudo 2

      Saturday, August 22, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC

      Gable Steveson vs Anthony Cassioppi

      Main Card · Heavyweight

      Raina's pick

      Gable Steveson

      60%

      Method / round

      TKO / KO

      Round 1

      Line & edge

      -230

      69.7% implied · -9.7 pts

      Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.

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