Mahamedkhabib Kadzimahamedau vs Will Lewan
Main Card · Middleweight · Real American Freestyle
Mahamedkhabib Kadzimahamedau
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Middleweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- Pin rate
- 39%
- Tech-fall rate
- 29%
- Points-decision rate
- 32%
- Takedowns / match
- 2.1
- Takedown defense
- 71%
- Ride time
- 4:32 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 72/100
Recent form
Will Lewan
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Middleweight
- Streak
- 4-fight win streak
- Pin rate
- 33%
- Tech-fall rate
- 27%
- Points-decision rate
- 40%
- Takedowns / match
- 1.5
- Takedown defense
- 68%
- Ride time
- 3:52 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 81/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Will Lewan
Confidence
63%
Predicted method
Decision on points
Predicted period
Full time (2 periods)
Upset potential
Moderate
Risk level
Medium
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Will Lewan is the more complete all-round wrestler here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 2 periods.
Mahamedkhabib Kadzimahamedau's clearest path is chaining takedowns and building points from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 63%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a match that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Mahamedkhabib Kadzimahamedau
+228
- Market implied win %
- 30.5%
- Raina's model win %
- 37%
- Return on 100 staked
- +228
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Will Lewan
-251
- Market implied win %
- 71.5%
- Raina's model win %
- 63%
- Return on 100 staked
- +40
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-8.5 pts
Edge on Will Lewan
- Raina's model
- 63%
- Market implied
- 71.5%
- at -251
- Gap (model − market)
- -8.5 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Will Lewan higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
periods total
Over/Under 1.5 periods
Over
+110
47.6% implied
Under
-135
57.4% implied
Method & distance markets
- Lewan by fall+16737.5%
- Lewan on points+17037%
- Kadzimahamedau by technical superiority+41819.3%
- Match goes the full two periods-54.8%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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Real American Freestyle · RAF 12: Dvalishvili vs. Cejudo 2
Saturday, August 22, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Mahamedkhabib Kadzimahamedau vs Will Lewan
Main Card · Middleweight
Raina's pick
Will Lewan
63%
Method / round
Decision on points
Full time (2 periods)
Line & edge
-251
71.5% implied · -8.5 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.